2016's Outlook Maybe Not Be As Bad As First Feared

There are a lot of people, both media and fans alike who are very down on the prospects of the Atlanta Braves having anything close to resembling a half decent season. They look at the continuation of the tear down and rebuilding this organization is currently under and are bracing for the worst. 

Sure the farm system is now rated near the top in the eyes of most people and the plan, as it has been presented, has seemingly been followed and is continuing. There is, however, still ongoing concern on what the actual Major League roster is going to look like in 2016. People are afraid that it is going to be a full season of what they saw over the last 2 months of 2015 where the product, play and record was just a train wreck.

Just remember that people said that same thing about the 2015 team and hop bad they were going to be right out of the gate. They managed a .500 record right up until the All Star Break and were more then a competitive ball club. It was only then when another round of trades were made to gain youth and helpful assets that the team has continued to look for. Between that, injuries and a complete lack of big league arms in the pen and young starters going through some growing pains the Braves struggles.

Since then, the team has made more moves and have added some very high end prospects as well as some proven Major League talent. Not for a second is there any notion of the Braves putting out a Wild Card challenging lineup, but people may be surprised with the quality of play this team may be capable of.  There is no denying there are holes but there are still decent players that Fredi Gonzales can trot out there on a daily basis. Sure the progression of guys like Hector Olivia and Jace Peterson will be big factors on just how good the team could be. The rest of the squad is not as bad a everyone seems to think. 

A Healthy Freddie Freeman will be the cornerstone. If he can get back to Freddie Freeman ways, that would be a good place to start. Erik Aybar is a proven major league shortstop and offers decent defense and a respectable bat. He is not going to put up gaudy numbers but should be a solid player. 3rd base is an interesting area. There are a few guys that will battle for playing time, guys that are vying for the platoon roles and back up roles. Between Adonis Garcia Gordon Beckham Emilio Bonifacio Daniel  Castro. 

It will be interesting to see who will rise above and earn more time in the starting lineup.. The combo behind the plate of AJ Pierzynski and Tyler Flowers should both prove to help with the bat but perhaps more importantly help bring along the swell of young pitchers and provide a veteran presence to them and the clubhouse as a hole. The importance they may provide could be more important from a defensive perspective. This should be a formative duo.

Extra time for Nick Markakis to gain more strength after last off season neck surgery will only enhance his production especially his power numbers. He had a solid and productive offensive year last season but just did not have the strength needed to hit more then 3 home runs. Should be in double digits this season.  Recently acquired Ender Inciarte should be a bright spot in center for the team and complement Freddie Freeman well.  Only time will tell what $19M in Swisher and Bourn will be able to provide. If they can somehow have their contracts cleared from the books and open up some roster spots would be a nice bonus, but very unlikely to happen. 

A completely revamped bullpen and plenty of minor league contracts and invites to spring training will provide both major league quality depth in the pen and hopefully avoid the constant implosions that occurred last season. The should be competition as to who will close and who will set up and give the club plenty of options to fill out the rest of the pen. If all goes well there should be some good battles for the open spots and maybe provide more tradable assets that can be moved throughout the year for more building blocks.  

The rotation will be young but there are plenty of arms available and ready to fight for the couple of spots that are open to be won. The likely scenario to begin the season is Julio Teheran, Bud Norris and Matt Wisler as the top 3 and then an open contest between Williams Perez, Ryan Weber, Many Banuelos, Tyrell Jenkins and Mike Foltynewicz for the last 2 spots.

Scorched Earth - The Rebuild of the Braves in Atlanta

The Cubs may have ‘Take me out to the ball-game’ during the 7th inning stretch and the Red Sox may play ‘Sweet Caroline’ In Atlanta they will be playing the Roof is on Fire and instead of the tomahawk Chop and the War Chant fans will be belting out “We don’t need no water let the mother#$%&*r burn, Burn mother#$%&*r burn!!”

It is interesting to listen to a lot of Braves followers and fans were all up in arms when all the trades began last season when the Braves moved Jason Heyward. Then after that Justin Upton was moved, then Evan Gattis and finally the apparent crushing blow when fan favorite Craig Kimbrel was moved on the day before the beginning of the season. Most everyone figured that this team was going to be a train wreck in 2015. I was not one of those people. I actually was not so pessimistic on how the on field product was going to be. A lot of power went out the door and the fireballer Kimbrel was gone but even so the players that were left were not bottom of the barrel. The 2014 season was a very frustrating one as a fan as it seemed like every game the team was trailing every game until at least the 7^th and if there was not a home run hit, the team was going to lose something to 2 or 3. The team struck out at near historic amount that season and that is just not a fun style to watch and clearly not a successful style to play. Like they say ‘good pitching will beat good hitting’ most of the time. The days of ‘Chicks digging the long ball’ seem to have passed. You need to be able to generate offense in other ways with a couple of legit power threats.

Fast forward to mid 2015, the team managed to be at or near the .500 mark with a much improved farm system. Now with that said the end of the season went off the tracks right after Jason Grilli was injured and then all the trades moved a lot of the players that were keeping the team afloat (Juan Uribe, Kelly Johnson, Jim Johnson and Alex Woods being the main ones).  Add to that Freddie Freeman’s wrist trouble, it was just too much to overcome. Fans began to get very vocal and unhappy. They reverted back to questioning the front office and whether the plan was worth the poor product on the field.

What it did was put the Braves in a position to truly position themselves to start from the ground and build almost from the real bottom of the barrel. They created payroll flexibility for the future and based on the dismal finish ‘earned’ a top 3 position in the 2016 draft. Also, not the worst thing in the world. They say that you can’t be a little bit pregnant and middle of the pack is the worst place to be. Not good enough to be good and not bad enough to get real cornerstone players.

Then the end of the season comes around and outta nowhere, the best defensive player in baseball today…maybe ever and yet another fan favorite in Andralton Simmons gets shipped to the Angles. Just like the feeling was when Kimbrel was traded fans were shocked and not pleased. Simmons was still young and signed and looked to be part of the core in the rebuild. The knee-jerk reaction to this is ‘what the hell’? but then, when you take a moment to think about it it does make sense. Move him now while his value is high and his range is still there. His offense has dropped of late but his glove is still elite. Moving him before his defensive prowess begins to decline flip him for a good package. They got back a solid stopgap shortstop in Erick Aybar and more prospect arms to added to the ever improving farm system. That brings us to the real deal, the Winter Meetings Blockbuster!

Nothing will help a fan base jump back to your side like a good trade. A trade that just about every ‘expert’ and team executive agree was a huge win for the Braves. When those people who know the game and are major decision makes agree that it was a steal what the Braves got in return for Shelby Miller (SS Dansby Swanson, OF Ender Inciarte and pitching prospect Aaron Blair) and comments like ‘incredible haul’ and ‘that is the worst trade I have ever seen’ has got to make both management and Braves fans alike fell much better about themselves and where thy are positioned now going forward during this rebuild. A lot of people are focusing on the 2 top prospects the Braves got in return but one could argue that Inciarte may be near as valuable as Miller is and to add anything above that is just icing on the cake.

Inciarte fills the right now need for a center fielder and helps field a much more complete MLB lineup for 2016 and going forward.

I will look at the prospects and farm system later but for now lets just look at the on field makeup as it stands right now. Now no one is going to claim that they are a potential playoff or wild card team but maybe they are not going to be the embarrassment that people thought they might be going into 2016. There is reason to believe that the lineup that they can roll out may be able to keep them from being a true bottom feeder and actually show some resemblance of a major league club.

If 1B Freddie Freeman can come back healthy from last years wrist injury he will be a good backbone of the lineup. Erick Aybar is a veteran SS and should prove to be a good placeholder for the short term, Nik Markakis is a great glove and if he can continue to get stronger from last years neck surgery his contributions should be felt. Having a good young CF like Inciarte fills a big hole while waiting for prospects to develop. The final big piece of the starting lineup is the duo, or tandem from catchers A.J. Pierzynski and Tyler Flowers. A.J. is coming off a revitalizing year and Tyler Flowers is a low risk high reward guy. Both should prove to have decent bats in the lineup wile offering great mentoring and development to a very young staff and having both veterans and strong defensive catchers that know how to call games and frame pitches should be a huge asset to the large crop of developing young arms. Where things may get interesting are some of the wild cards that are in Left, 3B and 2B. Hector Olivera season will be interesting to watch and if he is able to adjust and produce like the Braves hope he could be a welcome addition but no one knows how he is going to progress in his first full MLB season after coming over from the Dodgers. Then there is the revolving door that will be 2^nd and 3^rd . There are a slough of guys that will likely split time at both positions at any given time you could see Emilio Bonifacio, Gordon Beckham, Adonis Garcia, Daniel Castro and Jace Peterson at either of the 2 positions respectively. No one knows what any of these guys are going to do so maybe these guys may surprise and be moderately effective but nothing you can bank on just yet. Also there are the 2 ‘Mentors’ with the huge

The way that Braves GM John Coppolella wheels and deals it is unlikely that this is how things will look on day 1 but for now the 8 positions doesn’t appear to be as dismal as some people may have may think. There will no doubt be more movement and tweaking as the days and weeks go by.

The Off Season Guessing Game

The baseball Hot Stove Season is now upon us and the rumour mill is already in effect as it relates to Free Agency. What I would like to do is start writing blogs on what the Atlanta Braves might do, what they have done and  what the team may look like on opening day. Yeah, that isn’t happening, and nor will it for now and for the foreseeable future.

Trying to guess what Braves GM John Coppolella  and the Braves front office is thinking is like trying to understand why cats do the things that they do. Trying to predict what will be the next shoe to fall as it relates to the rebuilding process and then the other side of that coin of fielding a somewhat competitive team in 2016.

Just when you think the Braves are done their wheeling and dealing for young controllable arms they make another deal. Then you think all the roster players that may go are gone, another deal is made to free up money.

Trying to predict the next big splash is anyone’s guess and maybe even those same decision makers don’t even know right now. The one (or two) whispers that are a little confusing is the bantering about of names like Shelby Miller and Julio Tehran. With all the arms that the Braves have and are acquiring, they have not yet began to flip some of that pitching into some legitimate bats but that is likely bound to happen at some point. The question is from what pool are the Braves going to draw from. Miller was the Braves Ace last year. A lot of fans may not know that by looking at his 6-17 record but he was the victim of VERY POOR offence and a VERY SHAKEY bullpen. If they can flip him for a really good young player under club control for at lest as much as Miller or more the Braves would seriously have to look at making that move. Tehran can be all world or struggle mightily. He was up and down last year but began to seemingly figure things out the last 2 months of the season.

The one adage in baseball has always been, “when you think you have enough pitching, go out and get some more.” But those people have never seen just how anemic the Braves offence was at the end of the 2015 season.

If the team wants to be good going into SunTrust Field in 2017 there needs to be some core pieces in place sometime during the 2016 season. At some point some of those pieces have to come to town at some point.

So without getting into specific names, what we can do is ask questions about what the team might do in the Rule 5 Draft and also what they may do on the international free agent market next year with the flexibility they attempted to gain as part of previous deals that has also procured that plethora of good young prospect arms. Is there someone out there that the Braves are looking at that could provide a big bat that they so sorely need.

So instead of answering questions I guess I will just have to ask a bunch. How much money is available. What is more of a priority, fixing the offence or building a bullpen that is not going to go into critical meltdown 80% of the time they are called upon. With all the potential good young arms waiting in the wings you are going to need to have catchers that can work and help bring along some of the young guys that may make the big league roster. That is why signing AJ Prizinski was a smart move, sure he swung a decent bat last season but also seemed to work well with the young pitchers he handled last season. He is worth the investment if he can help bring along the young arms.

The 'Arms' Race Continues in Atlanta

Well if there was any doubt on the direction that the Atlanta Braves were headed in 2016 the answer became very clear last night. Andrelton Simmons, the best overall defensive player in baseball, was dealt from Atlanta to the Los Angeles Angles. That is likely the last big piece that the Braves had to get a hefty and/or impactful return. Coming from Los Angeles is veteran SS Erick Aybar who is essentially a placeholder for now and will be a free agent at the end of 2016. He is a player that will either be flipped in another deal or play SS and possibly be moved at next years trade deadline. He may be the veteran but not the key piece to the trade. The Braves also picked up 2 pitching prospects that were the real centerpieces for the Braves. As was the case in most of the other big deals that were made during lat years off-season the Braves have shipped out top end major league talent for top end pitching prospects. The first is Chris Ellis, a right handed mid rotation type prospect that helps deepen an already pitching rich farm system. He is not deemed to be an ace but a solid 3-4 type guy should he continue to progress. The main piece is Sean Newcombe, a big left handed power arm with 2 above average breaking balls. He looks like he could be a young Jon Lester type that can throw in the mid 90’s and top out at 96-97mph. If he continues on his current arc he cold become the teams #1 in the next few years. Projecting pitching is not an easy thing to do but the Braves are hoping that with the depth they are accumulating hope that 2 or 3 will reach their potential.

It is more then likely that some of these young arms are going to be used as currency in other moves to boost the extremely weak lineup that they are currently going to have to trot out onto the fields next season.

Braves fans are going to hope that a couple of these guys pan out because if they plan on winning any games they may need to do so 1-0 or 2-1.

Now it looks like the focus is going to have to be how best to thin out the logjam in the outfield. There are a lot of bodies and a lot of money tied up in the outfield. Any trades are not going to garner much of a return but right now it is probably more important to clear some money and create some roster spots for other younger players. There are 3 outfielders that the Braves would like to move out of town, Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher and Cameron Maybin. Those 3 guys are due in the neighborhood of $37M and only Maybin may be a player that may be ok to roam Center field, at least until the trade deadline. Regardless of the return it would be a prime example of addition by subtraction.

That is where we stand right now, but we must take note that it is sill just mid November and we haven’t hit the Winter Meetings where it is more likely that there will be more moves that will be made, either by trade or free agency.

Let the funny season continue, should be interesting.

Thanks Blue Jays! Now the hard work begins

 The World Series is about to begin and I do not have a horse left in  this race.  The Royals beat out the Blue Jays so it is a little hard to start rooting for them now, even if they may well have the most balanced team and are probably the favorites going in. The Mets have some great young arms but that KC lineup is very dangerous and can strike at any time. The Mets order is probably not as intimidating and  after a lengthy layoff may well have cooled down.

The dream match up I was hoping for was a Cubs vs Blue Jays World  Series. The Jays are my favorite AL team and the Cubs, well they are the Cubs, the lovable losers.

So now more focus goes to the off field game of baseball and there is  always. Much speculation on how teams will look to improve during the off-season.  Free agents, claims and trades come to the forefront during this time become topic of conversation and discussion. Who should stay, who should go and what upgrades can be made at a  reasonable cost (both in money and talent).

Normally this would be the time where I would start looking at The Atlanta Braves and begin feeling out what I think they need, where to get it and how they should go about it. This year is different.This year there are some extenuating circumstances that  very few could  have foreseen given the landscape of baseball in Toronto for the past 20 some odd years.

The Toronto Blue Jays had a great season, a winning season., a season  that saw them go 93-69. They won a divisional round series and just  came up a little short in a comeback that could have sent them to the World Series. How could focus go anywhere else?

The one good thing with this club is that there is a good chunk of the team that remains under club control.  The majority of those players will likely be back to for what proved to be a formidable offense and  provide stellar defense.  Turns out depth and a shaky bullpen proved  to be the team’s ultimate undoing.

With a relatively potent offense still intact the focus this off- season will be arms, both in the rotation as well as the bullpen. Well that and likely some bunting practice from some of the top of the  order guys.

The big question right now is what will the rotation look like going into next season. There will almost surely be an overhaul and what parts are left standing is anyone’s guess. The Jay’s have some good  young arms that could vie for a job as a starter but as for those who ended the season there will not likely be returning.

The club has an option on RA Dickey at a relatively team friendly salary. Not a top of the line guy anymore but an innings eater with a history of decent health so he is probably in the back end of the rotation. Mark Buehrle, Marco Estrada and David Price are all free agents. 2 of those guys will be looking to cash in this off-season and  1 may just retire. That leaves a lot of options and flexibility for the Jays to go in any number of directions.

Right now the only 2 Aces that the Jays
have is Marcus Stroman and this guy 

Here is the big thing on the pitching front, and this is where things  get murky. David Price will likely want somewhere in the ballpark of  7 years and near $200 some Million he is over 30 and as history will
show you are paying for about 4 maybe 5 good years before that  contract looks terrible and he is unable to throw to near that value. Marco Estrada has had 7/8 of a full year as a top end starter and entering the season was not even in the rotation. Giving him a big free agent contract based on 1 good season and one VERY good post season is a very risky proposition. The question now is Do You Feel  Lucky? Well do you, punk? The third member of this triad is Mark Buehrle. The decision may well be made by him and not by the club. He may want to return (but would have to do so at a very reduced rate) he may opt to retire or maybe he is just interested in moving on from the Jays altogether.

Oh, there is one other issue when looking at who or how this rotation  will be built. The GM, Alex Anthopoulos himself is going to become a  free agent on or near the completion of the World Series. So the current head decision maker and architect of this club may not be part of this club. Or, maybe he will be. Or, maybe there will be a sharing  of power in baseball operations with incoming Mark Shapiro as  President and CEO.  These are the most crucial decisions the Jays face  at the beginning of the off-season. After that it is all the easy  stuff like: Who is your second baseman Ryan Goings or Devin Travis who  will be returning from injury. What are you going to do at 1st base Smoke, Colabello or another? Do you need to trade a bat for an arm and  who can or are they willing to move? What young arm is ready to make the jump into the rotation? How and who are you going to set your bullpen and where are you going to find the ‘power arms’ that seem to  be a necessity?

And not unlike the Conservative Party of Canada attack ads.."and the budget will balance itself”. So too for the Blue Jays "the roster will fill out itself ’ right?

Trade Deadline Is Near - Braves looking to make moves

What is the right fit? What do the Braves have that teams want and do those teams have the depth to make it happen?

The Braves have some nice chips that they could move if an interested party were to offer up a package that fits what the Braves are trying to do. Based on being 7 games out at the break, one would think that John Hart and Co. would continue to look to the ultimate end game of being good in 2017 when they move into SunTrust Park. All the moves thus far have had an eye on that being the end game. Even more recent moves involving older players are now solid trade chips to bolster the farm, create a pipeline of talent and create depth so future trades for proven players is available when the time is appropriate. All the arms they are gathering is great but as we saw with the big 3 throughout the 90's and early 2000s great pitching can cover up a lot of offensive warts but at some point you need to have a consistent offense and an increase of power, one capable of putting up some runs to aid these good young arms and lessen the amount of stressful innings they have from night to night. It is hard for young arms to pitch in 2-1 games all the time. Being last in baseball with under 60 Home Runs this season thus far needs to be addressed. It would be nice if Hart can be creative enough to get some young power in the ATL.

When the season began there were a lot of “experts” that had written off the Braves this season and gave them no chance of finishing higher then last place in the East. Thankfully the Phillies look to be tough to wrestle that position away from. Going into the All Star Break the Braves are 7 games behind Washington for the East lead. Sure it is well within reach but fans should not be fooled. The team is not in a position to contend this year. They are a competitive team but not ready to be a playoff team yet.

After an off season that saw guys like Jason Heyward Justin and Melvin Upton Jr. Evan Gatis, and Craig Kimbrel shipped out for prospects and more controllable contracted players. The Braves were not expected to field anything near a competitive team. Thankfully for the players that were left and the fans that still wanted to see some decent baseball the Braves have played just under .500 ball.

Last year the team was an all or nothing squad. It was, for the most part and Home Run or bust team that were victims of the strike out more often then not. This year most of those guys are gone and replaced with contact hitters and play a more traditional National League style of ball. Contact and speed seem to be more the focus. This “small ball” mentality makes for much more enjoyable to watch. Sure it is nice to see the Home Runs hit, but when the power dries up it is a very painful game to watch. It is hard to watch the starters trow a good game and not get any support. As stated before. it difficult on pitchers both mentally and physically. Those bright young arms can throw much more freely when they get some help and take some of the pressure off.To continue on with the plan the Braves need to look to move some guys that are not going to fit into the long term plan and are nice trade chips should the Braves manage to find a suitable dance partner with the right combination of players or prospects. Guys like Cameron Maybin, Juan Uribe and Jim Johnson and maybe Chris Johnson's contract. If the Braves can use these guys to further increase the depth at the minor league level or pick up a young controllable bat that could be very beneficial to the club going forward. What is also nice is a extra bit of money that will be freed up when the cash owed to Dan Uggla is off the books. Money+ Prospects = Flexability

John Hart has shown he is not afraid to deal and if he can take these players and sell high he needs to do so. Even by moving some or all of these players they are still going to be able to field a competitive team. If you can still supply watchable baseball and strengthen your organization at the same time, it is a no brainer.

Atlanta Braves look to surprise with re-vamped team

Former Braves closer Kimbrel a bad contract casualty as well as an unnecessary luxury on a team that is in re-tooling mode

There are a lot of people out thre that are upset with the timing of the Atlanta Braves most recent trade of Melvin Upton Jr. (formerly B.J.) and All Star and probably the best closer in the majors Craig Kimbrel to the San Diego Padres on the eve of the season opener. Had the deal been done when the Braves were clearly in ‘trade mode’ and appearing as if they were just re-tooling but clearly such a deal was not available at the time or it would have been made.

The Braves made it clear that they are re-stocking for the near future and the corresponding move to the new SunTrust Field in 2017 but it looked like they still thought they could be a top runner in the Eastern Division. Because of the previous trades that were made with Gattis, Upton and Heyward having an all star closer like Kimbrel was more of a luxury then a necessity. After the acquisition of former closers Jason Grilli and Jim Johnson there was some flexibility in terms of the closers roll in the Braves pen. GM John Hart made it clear that the team was not shopping Kimbrell but that the team had been approached by a number of teams about his availability. He appears to be the casualty of an albatross of a contract by the wildly under performing and overpayment of Upton JR. San Diego is going to take on all of Upton’s salary in order to get Kimbrel. When you can shed that contract and roster spot from the books you almost have to make that deal. They acquired Cameron Maybin and Carlos Quentin, two highly regarded prospects -- right-handed pitcher Matt Wisler and outfielder Jordan Paroubeck -- and the 41st overall selection in this year’s First-Year Player Draft. Maybin will stay with the team but Quintin has been designated for assignment and will either be traded or released and was just involved in the deal for salary reasons and will not play for the team.

Some Braves fans may have more of an issue with this then others, but in the short term and the long term the moves seem to be done within the parameters of a master plan. Many are concerned in the short term about the direction of the club. At the moment I am not as worried. After the last few seasons of being the 27th or so ranked team in terms of  sacrifice flies, and having innings that were some combination of rally killing strikeouts and inability to move runners over and in, it will be a welcome change to watch a team that can manufacture some runs.

So many times last year the pitching was so good throughout the game but the club just seemed to be trailing more often then not until the 7th or 8th. Combine that with only having 0-2 runs at that time became frustrating for fans and likely and more importantly the starters that were being taxed with high pressure innings every outing just to keep game in reach in hopes of a home run that often never came. Free swinging and hero-ball mentality did not work very often and that caught up with the team late in the season taking them right out of contention in both games and the divisional standings.

With all the off season moves there seems to be a concerted effort to play ball the right way, a more traditional National League style with an emphasis on speed and defence. The lineup flexibility and the ability to manage different situations and not rely on inconsistent and dwindling power production. A team that can manufacture runs is a more enjoyable style to watch for sure. Speed is fun and seldom slumps...the only downside is you can’t steal 1st base so walks and singles carry even more emphasis.

To all those people who are worried about the on field product this season, maybe reserve judgement for a bit. Lets see what we got here. The rotation, especially when Minor returns from the DL looks to be respectable and the re-vamped lineup looks like it could be sneaky decent. The addition of former closers Jason Grilli and Jim Johnson as set up man and closer should help offset the loss of Kimbrel and provide a solid 1-2 punch on the back end.

For a team that clearly has a goal of re-stocking their minor league clubs and adding young controllable assets the on field product looks competitive and that bodes well for when all the young prospects they managed to get via all the off season trades and transactions are ready to take the next step.
So lets not judge the direction of decisions too soon there is a lot of ball to be played and if you play it the right way an play hard there might be some good value on this squad.

Just look at center field, the bar is not set too high for Eric Young Jr. - hit .204, strike out less then half the time and have 30+ stolen bases and your already almost better then Melvin ‘don’t call me BJ’ Upton and his $46.3 Mil still owed to him.

Kimbrel was the casualty of former GM Frank Wren’s miscue in signing Upton, the then free agent to an unworthy amount and length of term contract. They are all now gone and it is time for the team to move on.

Is Kimbrel A Luxury Asset?

What is his value to a revamped Braves team and is it greater then what they can get for him now or at the trade deadline?

With all the moves the Atlanta Braves have done this off-season there is still one very important question left to be answered, what should they do with Craig Kimbrel? Do you keep a closer that may not have as many opportunities on a team that you don’t know what they are yet or if they will be able to compete in enough games to make it worth keeping Kimbrel around.

Kimbrel is a fan favorite, is locked up for the next few years and is one of the most dominant relievers in baseball. With that said, does it make a lot of sense to hang onto a closer that may not get the chance to save as many games. Maybe now is not the best time to move him as typically moving a reliever closer to the deadline will garner a more bountiful return. By waiting, you can also see how the team is handling the newly re-vamped roster. Maybe they ride a good starting rotation and are able to manufacture more runs then anticipated and surprise a lot of people. If not then having the unnecessary luxury of a closer does not make as much sense.

The Braves are trying to gear up for their move to SunTrust Park in 2017, and likely by that time Kimbrel’s value would not likely be as high as it would be now. If some of the new arms that were acquired this off season look like they have rebounded from down years then maybe there is a capable guy there that can step into that role in the interim.

A possible return that could be retrieved might just be enough for GM John Hart to part with his golden armed closer and get some more assets in his quest to prepare the Braves for their move to SunTrust.

Recent deals that have included the likes of Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Evan Gattis have brought back many top prospects, most of them young arms. On a team that also has many questions on offence some quality bats could be a nice and welcomed addition.

There is still time before the season for Hart to address that, especially in left field. There are still some free agents still available as well so that could also affect the teams willingness and/or need to move Kimbrel anytime soon. 

Baseball's Winter Wonderland

Although still early, the Winter Meetings wrapping up in San Diego, there has already been some big Domino’s that have fallen. The Oakland A’s have been one of the busiest teams in terms of  trades. They have already made a blockbuster move with Toronto involving their 3^rd baseman Josh Donaldson and another with The White sox involving starting pitcher Jeff Samardzija.. They have also made some Free Agent moves in picking up Billy Butler formerly of the KC Royals.

The Atlanta Braves have been fairly active as well in their pursuit to revamp a roster that is need of a face-lift and also in need of some added depth both at the major league and minor league level. The Braves have already done one Blockbuster deal when they Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden.to the Cardinals for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. They also moved Tommy La Stella for Arodys Vizcaino and International Free Agent money. The Braves also dipped into the free agent market already with the signing of relief pitcher Jim Johnson and right fielder Nick Markakis.

It looks like new GM John Hart is not done his transformation of the Braves just yet. There is the looming issue of both Uptons (B.J. and Justin) and Evan Gattis. Justin and Evan are the most likely to be dealt but if Hart can mange somehow to ‘mind trick’ another GM into taking BJ and his contract off his hands (like JP did for the Jays with Vernon Wells and Alex Rios) he would probably be praised by Braves nation. It will be interesting to see what Hart is able to do regarding these players. Justin Upton would likely fetch the best package in return, it is just a matter of what Hart is looking for and what other GM’s are willing to part with. It is no secret that the Braves are looking for young controllable arms as well as shore up a currently depleted farm system starved for high end talent.

The Braves were looking at a possible power replacing outfielder in Cuban, Yasmani Tomas but he chose to sign with Arizona so the Braves elected to take a look at Dian Toscano, a lesser known Cuban that sounds like more of a contact hitter then a big power threat like the most recent Cubans who have come over of late. It is looking like one of John Hart’s objectives is to move the identity of the team to a more contact oriented lineup. Power is a great thing and can prove to be imposing but if you are striking out more often then not it can’t help but hurt the teams ability to manufacture runs. Good pitching can stifle big power and when that is not there you need to be able to put the ball in play and that is something the Braves struggled with down the stretch last season The team has also obtained the services of former A’s infielder Alberto Callaspo as a 2^nd base option.

The Braves are still thin on a starting rotation that has only 4 members thus far. Depending on what other trades or other moves are made, pitching will be a major point of focus for the team. When you think of The Braves, people still tend to remember the good ol’ days of Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz being the backbone of the team. With the quality of arms that are in the NL East already the Braves will need to bolster their arms and offence if they hope to compete.

All eyes will still be on Atlanta and GM John Hart as there are still a number of moving pieces that need to be resolved, either via Free Agency or by trade. And the waiting game continues... 

Hot Stove in Hot-lanta

The Atlanta Braves have seemingly become one of the first teams to get things heated up during the Hot Stove season.

The first big blockbuster trade went down last week with the Bravo’s trading Right Fielder and Gold Glove winner Jason Heyward to the St. Louis Cardinals with relief pitcher Jordan Waldon. In exchange the Braves get Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. In addition to that the team also will save a little bit of money, get players that they can control for a few years as well as gain some added payroll flexibility. The Braves are in need of rebuilding a young, unproven starting rotation that is also filled with uncertainty  as they await finding the availability and ability of Kris Medlan and Brandon Beachy. 

The loss of Heyward is an interesting one to try to make sense of. Is this a good thing or a bad thing? How are we supposed to look at this? Are they throwing in the towel for 2015 and looking to rebuild and try to be ready for 2017 when they move into the new stadium? Is this just the first step in simply retooling? It seems that it will all depend of what shoes fall next.

John Hart and  Co. still have some big decisions to make and potentially some big deals that may or may not happen. It does seem clear that the team is looking to gain players that they are able to control for a few years that offer a little more cost certainty. What happens with Justin Upton, Evan Gattis and maybe even BJ Upton will be interesting to see. It would be interesting to see if the Braves don’t try to completely re-make their entire outfield. J-Up is set to be a free Agent and the Braves would likely be inclined to move him for a strong return. If he goes does Gattis move to left? Maybe Gattis gets moved to somewhere like KC to be a DH to take the spot that Billy Butler held. What then happens to BJ, do they hope that new hitting coach Kevin Seitzer can do something to get he to be even just a little bit productive or can he be flipped for someone else’s bad contract?

It seems that money, as much or more then anything is the motivation to do a lot of these moves. The Braves want pitching and controllable years. They have a questionable offense as it is constructed now and a thin minor league pipeline coming up. This is evident with the move that sent 2nd baseman Tommy La Stella to the Cubs for Arodys Vizcaino and $830K in international free agent money. 

Until the next shoe drops it will be hard to judge what the Heyward deal means and also what the Braves plans are for next season and what the look of the team will be heading into Spring Training.

BUSY OFFSEASON FOR THE BRAVES FRONT OFFICE.

Big Decisions to be made in Atlanta this offseason, and it begins at the top.

The Atlanta Braves are heading into some unprecedented territory this off-season. After the recent termination of GM Frank Wren and the appointment of Interim General Manager John Hart it will be very interesting to see what direction he and the team have in mind.

It is believed that the fate of manager Freddi Gonzalez will be determined by whomever eventually gets the job but likely he will get at least 1 more shot next season, albeit with likely a much different looking regular lineup.

What will prove to be most interesting is what deals will be done under the supervision of John Hart and what will be “saved” for the incoming GM as it relates to player movement.

The Braves endured a season where they managed to finish near the bottom of most offensive categories and managed to be near the top of the team strike out list. For a team that relied on the home run to score, when the power goes out and the runs dry out, then combine that issue with no run production via the long ball no amount of pitching will be able to bail you out.  

So, where do the Braves look to select only their 3^rd GM since 1990? Do they go internal an promote assistant GM John Coppolella, 35? Perhaps use past relationships to lure KC GM Dayton Moore back to the ATL. Also, Former Houston GM Gerry Hunsicker’s name has been mentioned as a possible candidate.

John Hart himself has been known to be the architect of some pretty potent offences in his times as a GM but has not always had pitching staffs to complement it. The Braves seemingly are at least ok by the looks of things on the mound (although the common sentiment is if you have 5 good starters you need 4 more). Will the Braves have to move a younger arm with some bad salaries to make some off-season moves?

It would be nice to either get some cash relief by moving a BJ Upton or Chris Johnson, which would also immediately cut down on the amount of strikeouts the team managed to have. If one or both could be moved, some other teams bad salary would likely have to come Atlanta’s way and possibly a young prospects may have to be included to sweeten the deal. There are probably few untouchables on the roster and whoever takes over as GM could really put their stamp on the team if they decided to get creative and make ‘The Big Deal’. Both Jason Heyward and Justin Upton are free agents after 2015, decisions will have to be made on their long term future as well, could they be dangled to bring back a decent return. What will happen with Evan Gattis is also a question mark. If the team thinks they can get service and production from a Christian Bethencout/Gerald Laird combo maybe Gattis’ power could backbone a trade to fill another void.

We will hopefully soon see who is calling the shots. It is likely they would like things in place soon after the World Series concludes and the GM Meetings in early November.  

The Value of a Win

I have had a long, misguided, and over-appreciated view of what a win really means in baseball. At least in terms of what a win is as it relates to a pitcher.

There was a time when I thought you could look at a pitchers record and ell if he was having a good season or not. Was this pitcher worthy of winning a Cy Young or even be considered an ace without 18+ wins? At one time I probably would have said no. I felt like consistency and good pitching go hand in hand and the results would usually, over the course of a 182 game season work itself out. I no longer believe this.

Even bad teams will win a lot of games, so one could conclude that even a good pitcher on a bad team is going to get positive results. The failure rate in most categories in baseball is so great that one would figure that even the bad will beat a good on any given night.

What I am learning about good pitching and good numbers are that strictly looking at win totals does no good at all. Sure, I will submit that there is something to be said for some guys that just manage to 'get it done', 'rise to the occasion', or simply 'just win, baby'. But in the big picture you can't just look at that.

After watching the Braves this season seemingly give up at least the first run on just about every night, but it seems like it is multiple runs early in the game. it makes it a lot more difficult to play from behind all the time and  not getting early runs is not helping anyone. When the Braves do score it seems like it is just one or 2 runs and then the bats go quiet again. This is leaving the Braves pitchers out on an island to fend for themselves. Sure there have been some stinkers thrown by the rotation, but on the whole, as a complete rotation they have been sensational. Considering at the beginning of the season it looked like the 5 man group had be decimated and that that was going to be the Braves downfall right from the get go.

On a season that looked so promising with a rotation that look like it could be Julio Tehran, Kris Medlan, Brandon Beachy, Gavin Floyd, and Mike Minor and or the possibility of Freddy Garcia, There was talk that maybe a 6 man rotation would be the way to go for the first month and see how that went. The team looked deep in that position, looked like a solid playoff calibre team that was ready to play any National League team.

That nice depth of quality arms looked to put the Braves in a position of strength and offered high optimism heading into April. Then the wheels went off the track and things began to go sideways. Medlan - Tommy John (again), Beachy Tommy John (again), Gavin Floyd looked good on his rehab then boom - Tommy John (again). Suddenly things down in Peachtree nation wasn't looking quite so peachy.

It was easy to be greatly concerned that this was going to devastate the team and just crush the team coming out of the gates a bury them early. Freddy Garcia was let go in what at the time seemed a strange decision and Aaron Harang was brought in off the scrap heap from Cleveland. Ervin Santana was swept away from at least 1 other team, at least one AL East team with a 14.1M 1 year contract. It looked like the season was going to be cut down at the knees because of the pitching. That was far from true. They were almost all the shining stars on a team that was just not able to sustain a consistent offence that, by the end of the season, was all but dried up. This is why the win for pitchers mean so little. You can pitch your ass off and get rewarded with either no support, blown leads from the bullpen or no help until it is too late. Even as a Braves fan I feel for Cole Hammels a bit as he seems to get the same amount of support that the entire Braves staff was given the majority of the season.

How Craig Kimbrell managed to rack up 46 saves is almost mind blowing. I guess with that said the Braves could not or would not score much of any runs until the 7-8 or 9th innings. The way a game is played out is directly influenced but the team that can jump out and score even a few early runs...it just takes the pressure off that you just can't plate guys.

With all the teams in the NL East poised to be better next season through nothing more than just getting healthy the Braves need to bolster a roster/lineup that can manufacture some runs. If they could not do it this year with the diminished staffs from other NL East teams then they are going to need some much different faces and approaches next year and maybe then some of these well tossed games and efforts by the pitching staff will not go to waste as often.

Making sure the deal today doesn't bite you tomorrow

The balancing act when trading for now but not getting burned in the future

There is always a risk when making a trade in any sport, especially baseball. It is usually less risky when making a player for player deal as, for the most part, with established players you have a pretty good idea what you are giving and what you are getting. Also there is less of a financial penalty because there is no salary cap. A deal may hurt your budget but not necessarily cripple the team. Of course injuries that may crop up are out of anyone's control. The Ian Kinsler/ Prince Fielder trade between the Texas Ranger and the Detroit Tigers is evidence of that. Tigers look to come out way ahead of that one so far with Fielder possibly out for the season with neck surgery.

 

Where deals are a little more cloudy is when you start throwing prospects into the mix. This happens a lot near the trade deadline for teams that look to get an established arm or bat to help in a push for the post season or for a World Series run. Eliminated teams will often deal top end players that will not help them in the short term and get top end prospects to help them get better in the long term. It is a tough balancing act on how much teams are willing to give up in terms of the future for players that can be dropped into the line-up right away.

Every team has stories about winning and losing deals with this practice. As a Braves fan I know all to well that one can hit a huge home run when the prospect that you trade for becomes a soon to be Hall of Fame member. It started with the Braves trading Duane Ward to Toronto for Doyal Alexander. Then Alexander was traded to the Tigers for Prospect John Smoltz. Not a bad deal, Alexander went 9-0 and helped the Tigers win the AL East, Smoltz went on the be part of one of the best rotations ever assembled in the last 50 years. There is also trades that looking back involving prospects that look less then favorable as a Braves fan. 1 Career year for JD Drew and Eli Mararo to the Braves for competent reliever Ray King, Jason Marquis (who was still decent at the time) and, this is where it hurts - prospect Adam Wainwright (he turned out pretty good). The other prospect trade that looks bad now was the deal that brought Mark Texteria and Ron Mahay to Hot-Lanta for  Beau Jones, Elvis Andrus (Starting SS-close to 30sb per yr), Neftali Feliz (40 saves in 2010), Matt Harrison (won 18 in 2012) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

 

The best trade of late that was not made was the deal that would have sent Randall Delgado to the Cubs in a deadline deal that would have seen Ryan Dempster sent to the Braves. Thankfully Dempster vito'd the trade and the Braves retained the rights to Delgado. Delgado was then used as a key piece that brought Justin Upton to The ATL with 3B Chris Johnson for  Nick Ahmed (minors), Brandon Drury (minors), Randall Delgado, Martin Prado and Zeke Spruill. Had Delgado been traded to the Cubs for 1yr of Dempster the Braves may have had to include Julio Teheran as part of the Upton deal. Not something the Braves I imagine would have either wanted to or would have been willing to do.

Power Outage in the ATL

Braves struggling to find a consistent offensive stride.

Well as nice as it is to see a tick in the win column for the first time in over a week for the Atlanta Braves, it is still a major concern. The Braves managed to eak out a 2-1 win over the St Louis Cardinals in game 2 of a three game set. This win is coming on the heals of a 7 game losing streak and in so being sweapt by both the Marlins and the Giants and dropping game 1 vs the Cards. They managed only 13 runs in those 7 games and managed to only push one run across in each Giants game and was shut out in game 1 vs the Marlins.

After such a hot start by the Braves to begin the season they are in the midst of just a huge slide and had even lost top spot to Washington for a bit. Going into the season there was a huge concern that the Braves starting rotation was going to be a big issue. After Kris Medlan and Brandon Beachy went down to their second Tommy John surgery there was real worry that they would be in trouble. Then GM frank Wren did some fancy footwork and snuck into the Ervin Santana negotiations and stole him from the Blue Jays and Orioles and then made the surprising move in cutting Fredy Garcia and picking up Aaron Herang. So far both have shown to be solid moves thus far.

For whatever reason they have had a beginning to the season with near historic numbers put up by the starters, and that has kept things together.

It was thought that the offence would need to be the ones to keep things on the rails and carry the team. Of late that is far from the case and the only reason any of the games have been close of late is the pitching. Even last night in the win they only managed 2 runs scored. Granted they have run into some real good pitchers from the other teams they are still in just a huge drought. For starters they are averaging 9 strikeouts a game. To put that into perspective that is 3 full innings of NO CONTACT. Hard to score a run when you can't execute a bunt or make contact and get a sacrifice fly. They are hitting near .225 with runners in scoring position right now and even though currently in a slump it is only Freddie Freeman who has even respectable numbers in this category.

It was nice to see BJ Upton come out a few games ago with glasses on. If that was an issue maybe it will help him turn his dreadful time in Atlanta around. After last seasons Lasik procedure Dan Uggla is still struggling and needs to snap out of it soon or his starting job may fall on the shoulders to Ramero Pena.

There may be something a little more drastic that needs to be done and that would be more then just Freddie Gonzalez putting the pitcher into the 8 spot to try to get more runners in front of Freddie Freeman. Maybe they need to explore blowing it all up and rebuild the lineup.
The first thing I would like to see done is Jason Heyward moved from the lead off position. That worked last year, so far, this season, not so much. I would like to see something more like this and see how that works:

Simmons, Chris Johnson, Freeman, J Upton, Heyward ,Gattis, Bj Upton, Uggla/Pena, *Pitcher

Simmons does not strike out a lot and has decent speed, Chris Johnson can handle a bat and uses all fields, Freeman is your RBI Guy, J- Upton your power clean up hitter. Dropping Heyward down may take some pressure off and he can get more pitches to drive and get some of his power back. Gattis behind Heyward to protect him and then BJ Upton and Uggla/Pena to finish out the lineup. When Pena is in the game I have no problem with him batting 9th and putting the pitcher in the 8 hole. It just seems that something major needs to be done to get the players attention and maybe find a spark and change the fortunes of this team that is struggling so mightily.

It would be nice not to waste all the good pitching that they have been afforded thus far.There will be a point where they too will struggle and not a lot of games can be won where they can only muster a handful of runs and the pitching staff is giving up 3 or more. That should not be too much to ask for. There is just too much offensive talent on this team to not be able to score any runs.

Maybe if they can put up a crooked number early and not wait until the 7th inning or later to score some runs it will not only help out the team during the game but also the mind set. Get some runs early and it will take that some pressure off and that could make a world of difference. A couple of runs early may help the pitchers too not have to throw so many high pressure innings and put extra strain on their arms.

Six Flags Over Atlanta

It has been a Roller Coaster week at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in the middle of Walt Disney World® Resort.

It all started when #1 starter Kris Medlan hopped off the mound, holding and flexing his elbow and forearm. This was a sight that has been seen before and that resulted in him taking an unwanted trip to Alabama. Lets make this clear, not good happens on trips to Alabama unless you are a QB, WR, RB or a 300lbs Lineman. This trip was to the clinic of the number one, but most hated name by fans in all sports, Dr. James Andrews. Dr. Andrews is the foremost authority and surgeon for Tommy John reconstructive surgery.

For the second time Medlan left a game and it is not only feared but is generally believed that  he will have to undergo a second Tommy John procedure and will likely miss the entire season and probably the first bit of the beginning of next season. A lot of people are not aware of Medlan as he is not as well known and is regarded as one of the most under appreciated and under the radar pitcher in all of baseball. Since his return he is second to only Clayton Kershaw in ERA (2.47). Needless to say a big loss the the Braves rotation and team.

Just when you think things are starting to look bleak in terms of the rotation, the next man up, another Tommy John client took the mound in a Spring outing. Brandon Beachy still working his way back after being shut down last season after his return from the procedure. Since then he has had another smaller procedure to clean things up. Beachy started the game and was pitching well but then he too had to shut it down early mid game. In terms of Beachy, at least it seems like he just needs of rest and strengthen his arm but in any event he will not be ready to start the season when the teams breaks camp.

A once relatively deep and good looking young staff has been decimated in a very short period of time. The Braves wasted little time in addressing this gaping hole in their team that has been built to try to win now. 2-9 in the lineup are a pretty solid team on paper. If BJ Upton and Dan Uggla can bounce back and be just average the lineup has the potential to be a strong one. After brutal seasons by both those guys anything above average should bolster an already solid offensive line up.

Then right out of the blue Braves GM Frank Wren jump at the lone big name free agent out there Ervin Santana.  Santana is liked by many and questioned by maybe more. Wherever you sit on this guy it was a gutsy move that had to be done. Was it the right move?  Maybe, maybe not, but it was a gamble that had to be made. The Braves had to show their fans that they are willing to spend to make the team better and more importantly show the team that management is backing you and believe they are a good club and are expecting to win.

The deal is for 1 year for $14.1M. Like they say there is no bad one year deal. The one knock is that they had to give up the ever valuable 1st rd pick to the Royals who qualified Santana. That is the bad news. Here is the good news.The Braves have stated they are here to win not rebuild so losing the pick is the cost of doing business. Santana's $14 million salary wasn't in the budget, and the Braves do stick to budgets. Teams that do that have to be prepared to make difficult decisions. If that means walking away from a player they love -- Tim Hudson, for instance -- they do it. You have to give to get.

The Braves do have a silver lining for this too that help take the sting out of losing that pick. They are getting one from the Yankees for the Brian McCann signing and also they may be able to recoup that pick next year if they qualify Santana and he declines and tries his luck again in free agency for a long term deal.

Santana is coming to the National League for the first time. It is known as more pitcher friendly league and the stadiums lend themselves to being a little more forgiving as well. An added benefit for Santana to boost his stock this year is that the Braves on paper are a decent team but also have one of the best defenses in the NL. The outfield has speed and good gloves, the infield has the best defensive SS in all of baseball in Andralton Simmons and Freddie Freeman can pick it as well as any first baseman in the game. I know it sounds weird that a guy that sports a sideways straight brimmed hat can create this buzz but it is true. here is a quote from Richard Justice’s piece on the issue ”...Santana has pitched 200-plus innings in three of the past four seasons, and only James Shields, Max Scherzer and C.J. Wilson had more quality starts among American League pitchers in 2013. Santana is a low-key, professional guy who will fit well in the Atlanta culture.”

Hopefully the team can break from spring training without any more injuries and get off to a decent start. It looks like it will start with Julio Tehran, Alex Wood, Freddy Garcia and David Hale.

Hopefully they can then get some help with Minor, Beachy and Santana coming back hopefully in the first month and then Gavin Floyd sometime in mid May.

It will be an interesting beginning to the season and if they can stay afloat until they get some reinforcements back they should be in a good position to keep up with or close to the Washington Nationals.