Making sure the deal today doesn't bite you tomorrow

The balancing act when trading for now but not getting burned in the future

There is always a risk when making a trade in any sport, especially baseball. It is usually less risky when making a player for player deal as, for the most part, with established players you have a pretty good idea what you are giving and what you are getting. Also there is less of a financial penalty because there is no salary cap. A deal may hurt your budget but not necessarily cripple the team. Of course injuries that may crop up are out of anyone's control. The Ian Kinsler/ Prince Fielder trade between the Texas Ranger and the Detroit Tigers is evidence of that. Tigers look to come out way ahead of that one so far with Fielder possibly out for the season with neck surgery.

 

Where deals are a little more cloudy is when you start throwing prospects into the mix. This happens a lot near the trade deadline for teams that look to get an established arm or bat to help in a push for the post season or for a World Series run. Eliminated teams will often deal top end players that will not help them in the short term and get top end prospects to help them get better in the long term. It is a tough balancing act on how much teams are willing to give up in terms of the future for players that can be dropped into the line-up right away.

Every team has stories about winning and losing deals with this practice. As a Braves fan I know all to well that one can hit a huge home run when the prospect that you trade for becomes a soon to be Hall of Fame member. It started with the Braves trading Duane Ward to Toronto for Doyal Alexander. Then Alexander was traded to the Tigers for Prospect John Smoltz. Not a bad deal, Alexander went 9-0 and helped the Tigers win the AL East, Smoltz went on the be part of one of the best rotations ever assembled in the last 50 years. There is also trades that looking back involving prospects that look less then favorable as a Braves fan. 1 Career year for JD Drew and Eli Mararo to the Braves for competent reliever Ray King, Jason Marquis (who was still decent at the time) and, this is where it hurts - prospect Adam Wainwright (he turned out pretty good). The other prospect trade that looks bad now was the deal that brought Mark Texteria and Ron Mahay to Hot-Lanta for  Beau Jones, Elvis Andrus (Starting SS-close to 30sb per yr), Neftali Feliz (40 saves in 2010), Matt Harrison (won 18 in 2012) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

 

The best trade of late that was not made was the deal that would have sent Randall Delgado to the Cubs in a deadline deal that would have seen Ryan Dempster sent to the Braves. Thankfully Dempster vito'd the trade and the Braves retained the rights to Delgado. Delgado was then used as a key piece that brought Justin Upton to The ATL with 3B Chris Johnson for  Nick Ahmed (minors), Brandon Drury (minors), Randall Delgado, Martin Prado and Zeke Spruill. Had Delgado been traded to the Cubs for 1yr of Dempster the Braves may have had to include Julio Teheran as part of the Upton deal. Not something the Braves I imagine would have either wanted to or would have been willing to do.

RA of Hope?

 Over the last three seasons, the Mets are 53-39 on the days that 

R.A. Dickey pitched, and 177-217 on the days he didn't.

Not saying this as an endorsement but maybe a reasoning for Alex Anthopoulos`s position. Perhaps he just feels the need for a Dickey extension. Ok that was a weak low brow joke but still funny.

There are just 2 worries for the Jays to pull off a deal of this nature – one or both of Travis d'Arnaud and Syndergaard prove to be real stars not just from a Jays perspective but also as a fan of a team in the NL East. 

The other is that RA, rightly or wrongly reminds me of Tom Candiotti in terms of him being an old pitcher that chucks the Knuks. That worries me giving up top baseball prospects, not just Jays prospects but like top 10 in all of baseball.

Just recall one deal from a team just a bit to the south in the late 80’s – Det. Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz. Doyle went 9-0 for the Tigers during his time and help win the Division but flamed out in the ALCS and went 14-11 the next year and retired the year after that...Smoltz went on to be Smoltz and a Hall of Fame career.

The flip side is there have not been a sniff of the playoffs since the early 90`s in Toronto and with the possibility of a vulnerable Yankee`s and Red Sox teams maybe you have no choice but to use the farm system to help your team by moving unproven parts for a better chance to win now.

People have been very critical that the Jays never do anything and they just muddle in mediocrity. The fact that they are even in a position to make a deal like this to put them in an even stronger position must be a welcome change. 

With the line-up the Jays have right now, which I am convinced is not where it will be by the start of the season, a rotation as it stands now is a huge bonus. If you can exchange Dickey for JA Happ in the rotation and roll out. Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Dickey, Brendan Morrow and Ricky Romero and have Happ your guy out of the bullpen you are doing ok. Especially when you have to face a lineup like what the LA Angels are going to be able to throw out there in a series.

Cost/benefit analysis is tough to do. 

Should be interesting to see if this deal happens and what happens between now and seasons beginning.

Exciting times in Toronto regardless. Maybe the best time for all this with no NHL an no Maple Leafs. A great opportunity to take over the headlines and help grow the fan base and team loyalty.

Braves Not 'Medlen' Around

The Atlanta Braves have been known as the team with the best pitching staff over the 1990's and into the 2000's. When you can throw out 3 near lock first ballot Hall of Fame inductees like Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz and then mix in other ace potential starters like: Denny Neagle, Kevin Millwood, Steve Avery, Charlie Leibrandt, Pete Smith,  Jason Marquis and Jason Schmidt, you quickly see that the Braves have a history of building a championship caliber team from the mound out.  It was a great time to be a Braves fan. 14 straight division titles will do that for you. When you looked on the bench you would see Bobby Cox getting ready to get thrown out of a game and pitching coach Leo Mazzone rocking back and forth watching his pitchers.

Now the Braves are looking at going back to the playoffs, this time likely as the Wild Card team. This is for 2 reasons 1) The Washington Nationals have over achieved and have the best record in baseball and 2) The Braves have been hit with big injuries to key pitchers and yet have managed to secure a spot in the post season.

The Braves have managed to do what the Nationals have botched up from the beginning and that is to have a young stud pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery and managing his arm correctly and not harming their team in the process. Washington has the well known big gun Stephen Strasburg, the Braves have much less known Kris Medlen. The Nats made Strasburg the opening day starter and rode him as the ace until late August when they realized that he was getting close to the max innings they were prepared for him to work so as to not harm him long team. A fine Idea if you are the Houston Astros and have no hope of making the playoffs and shutting him down has no baring on anything, but the Nats were supposed to be good and should have know that using Stephen Strasburg as much as they did they would have to shut him down early or risk breaking there plan and putting the golden arm in a potentially dangerous position. The Braves seemed to take the opposite approach with Kris Medlen. The started him out in the bullpen, managed his outings, pitch counts and innings. In mid season they called on him to join the rotation as the rotation had been pounded with injuries and inconsistent starts.

Since then Medlen has been nothing short of spectacular. Currently (9-1) lost the first two starts of his career in 2009. He hasn't taken a loss in any of his 26 starts since, with the Braves prevailing in the last 21 of those...almost unheard of (The Yankees won 22 consecutive times when Whitey Ford started games from 1950 through 1953). Mitch "Wild Thing" Williams said recently on the Dan Patrick Show that he was the best pitcher in baseball right now. Not bad for a guy who started the year as a reliever.

Had Medlen been in the rotation he would likely be in the running for the Cy Young in the NL but then he also would be over his innings limit like Strasberg the Braves still have Medlen's services.  After losing Brandon Beachy's services after he went under the knife with Tommy John Surgery the braves were in need of a new ace. Ben Sheets went on the DL, Tim Hudson was on and off injured, Tommy Hanson had his struggles and Jair Jurrjens was inconsistent and then on the DL.  The braves managed to work through these injuries and still be in a position for the wild card.  No small feat for sure. Going forward they also have 2 guys to help fill out the depth of the rotation in respect to high end prospects; Randall Delgado and Julio Teheran. Both have a high upside and can hopefully come in and compete for a spot, work out of the pen as they mature or be used to help fill out the roster with the holes via trade that will open up this off season.

Just where would the Braves be have they have a full staff.  If Medlen and Beachy were healthy at the same time and Mike minor continued to pitch the way he has been and mix in Ben Sheets and Tommy Hanson WOW, that is one awesome staff and likely top team in the east.  Unfortunately injuries and baseball are and inevitability and that is why pitching depth is so  key.  Braves fans can only hope this is the second coming of a dominant pitching staff like they have in the mid 1990s.  It is too early to put these guys in the same class as future Hall of Famer's but the potential is there.

Hopefully the one game playoff between the two wild card teams does not come back to bite the Braves.  It can be interesting to see what this group can do. A strong playoff runin Chipper Jones last season would be a fitting end to a magnificent career.

Jays Fall Out Of Nest - Boston's Embarrassment Of Riches

The Blue Jays have been hit again my the injury bug and have sent 3 pitchers to the disabled list. Closer Scott Downs, Casey Jansen and ace of the staff Roy Halladay. They join 3 more pitchers on the DL in Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch. This team’s pitching staff has had been decimated by injuries not only last year or this year. It is almost a wonder that there is even anyone left in the rotation. It is a wonder that they are still only 2 game out of first which is almost amazing. How long they can keep this up is questionable but if they can manage to hold on and keep things close until they can get a few pitchers back it could go a long way in showing the rest of the league that they can become a potential player in the pennant race.


This brings us to the Boston Red Sox, who seem to be trying to change the way teams set up their starting rotation. The Jays can hardly get enough arms to play the games, the Sox are getting ready to run out an unprecedented 6 man rotation - and a good solid one at that. Former Braves ace and future Hall of Fame member John Smoltz is set to make his season debut for his new team next week. I guess this is just a case to the rich getting richer. Smoltz will join a staff that will include; Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Brad Penny and Smoltz. Not a bad luxury to have, that is a pretty deep pool to draw from. Will this work? Maybe, but it is a great problem to have.

Putting on a Brave Face

“My” Atlanta Braves have had a bit of a roller coaster off season. After a disappointing sub .500 season the Braves attempt to better the team has had its share of good and bad.

It all started at the winter meetings, where there was not only the perception but a real belief that they would land a number 1 pitcher in the form of Jake Peavy from the Padres. Over close to 3+ weeks of speculation it kept looking more and more like it was going to happen. Then all the talks died. This drama all ended with no deal...this would become a bit of a trend.
Player 1 Braves 0

Rafael Furcal, a former Braves shortstop and free agent was apparently ready and willing to sign with the Braves to return to Atlanta and take back his position. Then at the 11th hour he “changed his mind” for a more polite way of putting it. After getting a signed term sheet Furcal and his representation went back to the Dodgers to allow them to counter, then, in the end opted to stay in with the Dodgers. Had there not been a term sheet there would probably not been the public scene and animosity. President John Shurholtz was upset that a verbal agreement was followed by an unprecedented and unacceptable sequence of events from where he sits.
“Having been in this business for 40-some years, I’ve never seen anybody treated like that,” Schuerholz told The Atlanta-Journal Constitution. “The Atlanta Braves will no longer do business with that company -- ever. I told [agent] Arn Tellem that we can’t trust them to be honest and forthright. I told him that in all my years, I’ve never seen any [agency] act in such a despicable manner.
“It was disgusting and unprofessional. We’re a proud organization, and we won’t allow ourselves to be treated that way. I advised Arn Tellem that whatever players he represents, just scratch us off the list. Take the name of the Atlanta Braves off their speed dial. They can deal with the other 29 clubs, and we’ll deal with the other hundred agents.”
Players 2 Braves 0

Again there was much speculation that the Braves were one of the favorites in the A.J. Burnett sweepstakes. Now I wasn’t as bitter that they eventually lost out because I have seen him under perform in Toronto up until last season, conveniently a opt-out season. Burnett was offered a huge deal in Atlanta but decided to trade it in for a little more with the Yankees. In any event just another in a long line of high profile players that didn’t have Georgia on their Mind.
Players 3 Braves 0

Future Hall of Fame pitcher John Smoltz, even though he is still recovering from an arm injury opted not to wait until he was full healed and signed a deal with the Boston Red Sox. The Braves who have had issues with the health of their rotation over the last couple of years (see entire rotation, especially Mike Hampton who was by all accounts stealing money based on his contract) looked to be waiting for more info on the progress and have lost yet another big player and gained yet another hole in their lineup.
Players 4 Braves 0

The Braves managed to actually acquire some players this off season, perhaps some were a little under the radar and not the big name splashes that they would have hoped for. They managed to help out their troubled rotation but acquiring Javier Vazquez and new Japanese player Kenshin Kawakami. With Tim Hudson recovering from Tommy John surgery they will be good middle of the line pitchers that should eat up some innings.
Players 4 Braves 1

The Braves Then finally was able to both sign and close a deal for “Ace” Derek Lowe. Perhaps not as big a deal as C.C. Sabathia or K-Rod but at this point I guess beggars can’t be choosers. Low even though he is slightly older still should have a little life in his arm and being a ground ball pitcher may help him out...provided he gets a little help by his defense, and of course some support from his offence.
Players 4 Braves 2

Most recently was the report that another Future Hall of Fame member wanted to fulfill a wish and play for the Braves. Ken Griffey Jr. apparently made a call to Chipper Jones and asked for info on the team and to let GM Frank Wren that he was interested in playing in Atlanta. Then came the reports that the Braves were on the verge of signing the free agent...followed by the news that in fact Griffey had opted to sign in Seattle and become yet another player to shun the Braves this off season. When told of Griffey’s decision on Wednesday night, Jones was somewhat upset about the fact he felt he’d wasted his time while providing information that he felt Griffey was seeking in an attempt to land in Atlanta. “It’s just another person who shunned us,” said Jones.
Players 5 Braves 2

The Braves were able to sign Kelly Johnson, Jeff Franceour and Tom Glavine to 1 year deals. All come with at least some baggage whether it be for on field performance or can they get back to the level that they either once had or has had expected of them. Franceour need to have a bounce back to the player he was when he first came up. Glavine just needs to be steady and log some innings, he is not expected to be the Ace but just a piece of the puzzle, at his age being a leader will be a big asset. Not knowing how they will perform that only gives the Braves 1 Run.
Players 5 Braves 3.

After I had written the majority of this post there was finally another development on this issue. The Braves managed to get another quality left handed bat to sign on the dotted line, perhaps one even more significant then Junior. Garrett Anderson signed a 1 year $2.5M contract that should help fill the void in left and help out in the platoon situations that will arise in the outfield this season. Anderson still can be productive provided he stays healthy. This may be a wild card signing bit at a decent price could pay dividends and help protect Chipper Jones in the lineup.
Players 5 Braves 4

In the end they still have fallen a little short by at least they kept it close and were competitive. Lets hope that they over achieve this season and get back close to the top of the East again, a spot that they deserve to get back to.

Maddux Was A Master

He ended his career similar to the way that he played throughout it, quiet, professional and classy. Most players that are not only the best at their position during their time in the game but one of the best of all time would announce their intentions up to a year before so they can get all the fanfare they can and be in the news as a final Harrah! Greg Maddux is not that type of person or player an announcement at 6pm on a Friday night is about as obscure a time as one could ever choose. But that is the most fitting way for this 4 time Cy Young, 18 time Gold Glove winner, 3,000+ strikeout, 355 game winner.

Maddux was one of the least imposing superstars ever to play. A man who looked more like an accountant then a pro ball player was for the majority of his career like a surgeon on the mound. Now a days a pitcher like this probably would never get a chance to get to the majors let alone become one of the best ever. Scouts won’t even give you a look if you can’t hit 90mph on the gun. Maddux learned early that it was more about movement, location and changing speeds then velocity and that was how he became the master.
There is little doubt now that he will be the face of pitching during this era. Maybe it would have been Roger Clemens before his recent troubles but not it almost has to be Maddux. In the steroid era he was never linked or suspected of any improprieties and will possibly be the last pitcher to achieve that many wins in the new age of pitching with 5 man rotations and the way bullpens are used.

In his prime he anchored one of the greatest pitching staffs ever assembled with himself Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz with the 14 time Division Champion Atlanta Braves and was the ace of the staff in 1995 when the Braves were World Champions.

I got the pleasure of watching him pitch in Montreal during an Expos game and saw in person just what a special player he was. Hopefully in 5 years I will get to see him where he belongs…in the Hall of Fame and going in with an Atlanta Braves hat (and not a Cubs one).

Congrats on a great career and for the great memories during your time in Atlanta.