The Off Season Guessing Game

The baseball Hot Stove Season is now upon us and the rumour mill is already in effect as it relates to Free Agency. What I would like to do is start writing blogs on what the Atlanta Braves might do, what they have done and  what the team may look like on opening day. Yeah, that isn’t happening, and nor will it for now and for the foreseeable future.

Trying to guess what Braves GM John Coppolella  and the Braves front office is thinking is like trying to understand why cats do the things that they do. Trying to predict what will be the next shoe to fall as it relates to the rebuilding process and then the other side of that coin of fielding a somewhat competitive team in 2016.

Just when you think the Braves are done their wheeling and dealing for young controllable arms they make another deal. Then you think all the roster players that may go are gone, another deal is made to free up money.

Trying to predict the next big splash is anyone’s guess and maybe even those same decision makers don’t even know right now. The one (or two) whispers that are a little confusing is the bantering about of names like Shelby Miller and Julio Tehran. With all the arms that the Braves have and are acquiring, they have not yet began to flip some of that pitching into some legitimate bats but that is likely bound to happen at some point. The question is from what pool are the Braves going to draw from. Miller was the Braves Ace last year. A lot of fans may not know that by looking at his 6-17 record but he was the victim of VERY POOR offence and a VERY SHAKEY bullpen. If they can flip him for a really good young player under club control for at lest as much as Miller or more the Braves would seriously have to look at making that move. Tehran can be all world or struggle mightily. He was up and down last year but began to seemingly figure things out the last 2 months of the season.

The one adage in baseball has always been, “when you think you have enough pitching, go out and get some more.” But those people have never seen just how anemic the Braves offence was at the end of the 2015 season.

If the team wants to be good going into SunTrust Field in 2017 there needs to be some core pieces in place sometime during the 2016 season. At some point some of those pieces have to come to town at some point.

So without getting into specific names, what we can do is ask questions about what the team might do in the Rule 5 Draft and also what they may do on the international free agent market next year with the flexibility they attempted to gain as part of previous deals that has also procured that plethora of good young prospect arms. Is there someone out there that the Braves are looking at that could provide a big bat that they so sorely need.

So instead of answering questions I guess I will just have to ask a bunch. How much money is available. What is more of a priority, fixing the offence or building a bullpen that is not going to go into critical meltdown 80% of the time they are called upon. With all the potential good young arms waiting in the wings you are going to need to have catchers that can work and help bring along some of the young guys that may make the big league roster. That is why signing AJ Prizinski was a smart move, sure he swung a decent bat last season but also seemed to work well with the young pitchers he handled last season. He is worth the investment if he can help bring along the young arms.

Blue Jays GM Flies The Coop

In my last blog I talked about the issues that were going to need to be attended to by the Toronto Blue Jays. Most of that revolved around the pitching rotation and the free agents and trades that may be required to fill out the depth of this roster in hopes of putting the 2016 season over the top. When talking about the free agents I obviously did not put enough emphasis in getting now former GM Alex Anthopoulos locked up.

The day after I posted my blog I awoke to the news that AA had informed Rogers that he was declining the 5 year deal that was offered to him. That was, I don’t want to say a disappointment but it came as a shock and then the ensuing speculation on the reason for that he was not re-upping in Toronto was rampant.

As of now we don’t know why he chose to leave.  It seems like it was likely a philosophical difference with incoming President and CEO Mark Shariro. I guess until he signs on with another club we won’t fully understand what his mindset was, and even then, knowing how AA operates it still won’t be clear as he has a great talent in not directly answering questions posed to him. He seemed to, for the most part be honest but at the same time be able to be vague and evasive depending on the questions.

So the AA era is over but he has left a very good on field with team friendly contracts and not a lot of  ‘bad money’ on the books going forward. The one good thing for both Mark Shapiro and interim GM Tony La Cava is the flexibility the club has. That is also where the concern from the fans and media come from. There a re a lot of questions on what direction the new management/ front office are going to decide to do. As of Saturday Free Agents are available to start signing. Now it is not like hockey and day 1 a ton of players get locked up but this team are going to have to hit the ground running and derive a plan on how to best fill out the roster and re-build a pitching staff that is full of question marks. The team has already exercised options on Edwin, Bautista and R.A Dickey. Now they need to turn their attention to what they plan on doing with Marco Estrada, do they qualify or not and should or should they not look to get him signed to a multi year deal. Then there is the decision on the young arms from this past year Hutchinson, Osuzna and Sanchez.

It will be interesting to see over the next few months how things shake down.

What Free Agents do they target, what positions are the focal points and then what trades are available and does a big right handed bat get moved for either a young established controllable arm or a left handed power hitter to fill that roster spot or position on the field.  

Stay tuned during the Hot Stove season to see a rundown and instant evaluation of moves as they are made here at abitofeverythingsports.blogspot.com 

Thanks Blue Jays! Now the hard work begins

 The World Series is about to begin and I do not have a horse left in  this race.  The Royals beat out the Blue Jays so it is a little hard to start rooting for them now, even if they may well have the most balanced team and are probably the favorites going in. The Mets have some great young arms but that KC lineup is very dangerous and can strike at any time. The Mets order is probably not as intimidating and  after a lengthy layoff may well have cooled down.

The dream match up I was hoping for was a Cubs vs Blue Jays World  Series. The Jays are my favorite AL team and the Cubs, well they are the Cubs, the lovable losers.

So now more focus goes to the off field game of baseball and there is  always. Much speculation on how teams will look to improve during the off-season.  Free agents, claims and trades come to the forefront during this time become topic of conversation and discussion. Who should stay, who should go and what upgrades can be made at a  reasonable cost (both in money and talent).

Normally this would be the time where I would start looking at The Atlanta Braves and begin feeling out what I think they need, where to get it and how they should go about it. This year is different.This year there are some extenuating circumstances that  very few could  have foreseen given the landscape of baseball in Toronto for the past 20 some odd years.

The Toronto Blue Jays had a great season, a winning season., a season  that saw them go 93-69. They won a divisional round series and just  came up a little short in a comeback that could have sent them to the World Series. How could focus go anywhere else?

The one good thing with this club is that there is a good chunk of the team that remains under club control.  The majority of those players will likely be back to for what proved to be a formidable offense and  provide stellar defense.  Turns out depth and a shaky bullpen proved  to be the team’s ultimate undoing.

With a relatively potent offense still intact the focus this off- season will be arms, both in the rotation as well as the bullpen. Well that and likely some bunting practice from some of the top of the  order guys.

The big question right now is what will the rotation look like going into next season. There will almost surely be an overhaul and what parts are left standing is anyone’s guess. The Jay’s have some good  young arms that could vie for a job as a starter but as for those who ended the season there will not likely be returning.

The club has an option on RA Dickey at a relatively team friendly salary. Not a top of the line guy anymore but an innings eater with a history of decent health so he is probably in the back end of the rotation. Mark Buehrle, Marco Estrada and David Price are all free agents. 2 of those guys will be looking to cash in this off-season and  1 may just retire. That leaves a lot of options and flexibility for the Jays to go in any number of directions.

Right now the only 2 Aces that the Jays
have is Marcus Stroman and this guy 

Here is the big thing on the pitching front, and this is where things  get murky. David Price will likely want somewhere in the ballpark of  7 years and near $200 some Million he is over 30 and as history will
show you are paying for about 4 maybe 5 good years before that  contract looks terrible and he is unable to throw to near that value. Marco Estrada has had 7/8 of a full year as a top end starter and entering the season was not even in the rotation. Giving him a big free agent contract based on 1 good season and one VERY good post season is a very risky proposition. The question now is Do You Feel  Lucky? Well do you, punk? The third member of this triad is Mark Buehrle. The decision may well be made by him and not by the club. He may want to return (but would have to do so at a very reduced rate) he may opt to retire or maybe he is just interested in moving on from the Jays altogether.

Oh, there is one other issue when looking at who or how this rotation  will be built. The GM, Alex Anthopoulos himself is going to become a  free agent on or near the completion of the World Series. So the current head decision maker and architect of this club may not be part of this club. Or, maybe he will be. Or, maybe there will be a sharing  of power in baseball operations with incoming Mark Shapiro as  President and CEO.  These are the most crucial decisions the Jays face  at the beginning of the off-season. After that it is all the easy  stuff like: Who is your second baseman Ryan Goings or Devin Travis who  will be returning from injury. What are you going to do at 1st base Smoke, Colabello or another? Do you need to trade a bat for an arm and  who can or are they willing to move? What young arm is ready to make the jump into the rotation? How and who are you going to set your bullpen and where are you going to find the ‘power arms’ that seem to  be a necessity?

And not unlike the Conservative Party of Canada attack ads.."and the budget will balance itself”. So too for the Blue Jays "the roster will fill out itself ’ right?

Baseball's Winter Wonderland

Although still early, the Winter Meetings wrapping up in San Diego, there has already been some big Domino’s that have fallen. The Oakland A’s have been one of the busiest teams in terms of  trades. They have already made a blockbuster move with Toronto involving their 3^rd baseman Josh Donaldson and another with The White sox involving starting pitcher Jeff Samardzija.. They have also made some Free Agent moves in picking up Billy Butler formerly of the KC Royals.

The Atlanta Braves have been fairly active as well in their pursuit to revamp a roster that is need of a face-lift and also in need of some added depth both at the major league and minor league level. The Braves have already done one Blockbuster deal when they Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden.to the Cardinals for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. They also moved Tommy La Stella for Arodys Vizcaino and International Free Agent money. The Braves also dipped into the free agent market already with the signing of relief pitcher Jim Johnson and right fielder Nick Markakis.

It looks like new GM John Hart is not done his transformation of the Braves just yet. There is the looming issue of both Uptons (B.J. and Justin) and Evan Gattis. Justin and Evan are the most likely to be dealt but if Hart can mange somehow to ‘mind trick’ another GM into taking BJ and his contract off his hands (like JP did for the Jays with Vernon Wells and Alex Rios) he would probably be praised by Braves nation. It will be interesting to see what Hart is able to do regarding these players. Justin Upton would likely fetch the best package in return, it is just a matter of what Hart is looking for and what other GM’s are willing to part with. It is no secret that the Braves are looking for young controllable arms as well as shore up a currently depleted farm system starved for high end talent.

The Braves were looking at a possible power replacing outfielder in Cuban, Yasmani Tomas but he chose to sign with Arizona so the Braves elected to take a look at Dian Toscano, a lesser known Cuban that sounds like more of a contact hitter then a big power threat like the most recent Cubans who have come over of late. It is looking like one of John Hart’s objectives is to move the identity of the team to a more contact oriented lineup. Power is a great thing and can prove to be imposing but if you are striking out more often then not it can’t help but hurt the teams ability to manufacture runs. Good pitching can stifle big power and when that is not there you need to be able to put the ball in play and that is something the Braves struggled with down the stretch last season The team has also obtained the services of former A’s infielder Alberto Callaspo as a 2^nd base option.

The Braves are still thin on a starting rotation that has only 4 members thus far. Depending on what other trades or other moves are made, pitching will be a major point of focus for the team. When you think of The Braves, people still tend to remember the good ol’ days of Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz being the backbone of the team. With the quality of arms that are in the NL East already the Braves will need to bolster their arms and offence if they hope to compete.

All eyes will still be on Atlanta and GM John Hart as there are still a number of moving pieces that need to be resolved, either via Free Agency or by trade. And the waiting game continues... 

What Castle Will The King Be In Next Year?

If you thought that the Brett Favre saga the last 3 or so years (including this year where he said that that if The Southern Miss Golden Eagles baseball team can make it back to the College World Series for the second straight year, he will return for one more season in the NFL) was annoying and just kept dragging on just wait for the LeBron James storey to get into full swing. Now that the Cavs have been ousted by the Celtics in the NBA Payoffs it is now open season on what Lebron is going to do. There has been ample of speculation for both sides staying and going. Some say if he won this year he would definitely stay, other said he’d definitely go. Same thing if he lost.

Truth is no one knows and there is a good chance that even LeBron doesn’t know at this point. Being one of the top 2 players in the game, and at his age there will be every team in the league at least asking for his services. Some teams are in a better position to make a real push for him, but there are teams that have been clearing space for not only him but Dwayne Wade and to a lesser extent Chris Bosh.

It is going to be a long month and a half ahead with everyone and their dog giving their opinion on where he is going to end up next season. Someone is going to be right but it is going to be a long and painful process until July when he can actually put pen to paper and officially make his decision on the team, price and term that he is looking for.

It is fun to speculate where players will go when they get to free agency, just look at the NHL here in Canada. July 1st is not only Canada Day but also marks the first day of the free agent frenzy. The difference here is that there is going to be constant "news" just about him. Saying news is kind of misleading as there will be very little new to report until he actually signs, and the coverage and questions will be plentiful, annoying and no doubt redundant.

Winter Meetings

With World Series just beginning to fade in your mind, MLB GMs are already focusing on next season. The baseball GMs have come together in Chicago for thier winter meetings and it is no different then any other year. Sure they will talk about the business of baseball but unless there are some huge changes in schedules or rules or maybe even the expansion of instant replay most fans don’t relay care or pay attention to it. What they do pay attention to is the time in between and after the "formal meetings". This is a great place will all the big decision makers to get to talk 1 on 1 and perhaps get a positive dialogue going in terms of making a possible off season deal.

With the World Series over we now know who is available on the Free Agent Market and teams will have a good idea on who is out there and who they may need to target from other teams. Last year my Braves dipped their toes into both areas in getting some new players. Unfortunately they chased a few that got away and were shunned buy some others but that is all part of the game. They worked on the starting rotation last season, now it looks like they are looking for a bat and may be willing to move one of their top starters to get someone to help bolster the lineup. That has been the knock on the Braves for years, always known for a strong rotation but maybe not the most consistent lineup top to bottom.

The Blue Jays are also in an interesting position at these meetings. With a new young GM this will be his first meetings while leading the team. The team is in shambles and the direction unclear at this time, not a good position to be in. That being said, if he want to put his mark on the team now may be a great chance to do that. With Roy Halladay only signed to the end of the year, the opportunity for a deal involving some major prospects or quality talent may be out there and at these meetings may be an opportunity to get some talks going. There are also some other players that if they are able to purge somehow could start a positive rebuild. Lyle Overbay could be on the move and is movable, Vernon Wells needs to be moved but is unlikely to be able to be moved because he has so much money owed and so much time remaining that he may be virtually un-moveable.

We will all watch with interest and see how things shake out.

Revamping The Franchise

Apparently Free Agent Frenzy isn’t limited to the NHL. The NBA has gone above and beyond and possibly surpassed that of the hockey world. There were some huge moves that has made a few teams much better and have reshaped other teams into contenders. They even managed to mix in a few trades just to fill in some of the gaps. Shaq to the Cav’s may or may not be a good move, it will be interesting to see how he can go with LeBron. Richard Jefferson to the Spurs makes them much more dangerous.Rasheed Wallace to Boston, especially with the unknown health of Kevin Garnett is a big pick up. Trevor Ariza to Houston is interesting and connected to that Ron Artest basically trading spots with him and going to play with Kobe and the Lakers.

A little more close to home the Toronto Raptors seem to be doing their best to make their team a little better right now to show pending free agent Chris Bosh that they are serious about building a playoff team that is looking to contend. They apparently just locked up former 1st overall pic Andrea Bargnani for their big man, they have apparently have a deal ready to go for former Orlando Magic star Hedo Turkoglu to complement Chrs Bosh. They currently have Shawn Marion but are in talks with the Mavericks on a potential sign-and-trade deal that would see a Jerry Stackhouse to TO. Now if Jose Calderon can play at his near All Star level that he was 2 years ago and Anthony Parker and Joey Graham can contribute they may actually be able to field a very competitive team in an increasingly more difficult Eastern Conference.

The Raps may be a little weak on the bench, especially in the back-up point guard position so we will see if that gets addressed or if they see who on the current roster wants to step up and perform in that roll. For the first time in a few years it looks like they are actually ready to take a run and go a little deeper into the playoffs.

Like I said earlier, this could go a long way to convincing Bosh that he should stay past next year and not get mesmerized by big lights, by a big stage and a truckload of money.

Still Very Quiet On The Western Front - What Is The Endgame?

The first day of free agency has come and gone and Ottawa looks about the exact same as they did the day before. I was hoping that Dany Heatley would help out Bryan Murray in handcuffing him enough that he wouldn’t be in a position to make any bad moves or be trigger happy and overpay on anyone. Sadly that was not possible, he tried and he tried but in the end Murray did manage to find the time to make 1 bad decision and over pay on money as well as term on Chris Neil. 4 years and $8 million. I would much rather have a sub $1mil on a Cody Bass or someone of that nature. I fear that this was a knee jerk reaction to Bryan Burke and his moves to get bigger and a little tougher on defence with his moves as well as trying to keep him away from Burke getting him in a Leafs jersey as well. After seeing how the Kadri situation on draft day went between the two teams, I just hope the deal wasn’t made out of spite even if it was just a little.

As far as the Heatley situation goes I am not in the majority of calling him out as much as everyone else. Sure I am a little disappointed that nothing came from all the talk and speculation about going to Edmonton but only a little. After looking further into the deal it began to look less and less great from an Ottawa perspective. I was never a Penner fan, and questioned the offer sheet that he was signed to by Kevin Lowe, Smid is a decent young player and a nice piece coming back and Andrew Cogliano is a decent player but I have been looking at him with Maze and Gold coloured glasses from his Michigan days and thinking that he is a better player then what he is.

The $4 million bonus that has had to be paid to Heatley sucks from an Ottawa perspective but maybe it allows the Sens to get a bit better of a deal and be able to either get a better player or pick or maybe move out a little more money by throwing in a Jason Smith, Chris Kelly or Christoph Schubert contract into the mix and freeing up and recouping some of the $4 mil. If that doesn’t happen then either another team needs to step up or there will have to be some major Reconstruction to the bridge that was burned to have him back in Ottawa at the start of camp.

In an update on the 2 team showdown of my Western Conference favorite between the St. Louis Blues and the LA Kings there is little to report just yet. Both teams were very quiet yesterday with the Blues only adding Ty Conklin in net. LA still has a lot of space left which is important going forward but showed good restraint in not spending money recklessly and overpaying on either risky guys or over hyped players. Having a plan and sticking to it is impressive. Sometimes the move not made is the best move. I will give it a little longer as there are still lots of mid level free agents left out there that may sign but also may come at more of a reasonable price.

Free Agent Frenzy

Tomorrow is a celebration! July 1st, Canada Day. The birthday of our country. I hope that everyone celebrates or at least acknowledge it for what it is and appreciate how great it is to live in this great country. Many people for a long time have not only worked to make this country great but also those who have fought to keep this country safe and free. Happy Canada Day to all.

With that being said there is also another event that will be happening at the same time and that is in the form of Free Agency in the NHL. Usually there are a few big names that will go early...so early in fact that it would be impossible for it to be done legally. There is no way that deals can be struck within seconds at 12:00am but it is what it is, tampering doesn’t apply in this case I guess. (Suppose that the draft day deal between Calgary and New Jersey had nothing to do with Brent Sutter becoming free to coach the Calgary Flames). Once the big names start to fall it allows for some of the mid and lower level players to fit into place and teams can see where they stand leading into the summer and through training camp.

It is sure to happen that a couple players will get very overpaid by GMs who are feeling the heat from above and some teams who will make some shroud moves and go under the radar by just tweaking and those may become the most impactive deals that will be made.

I hope for the sake of my TV viewing and the 5 hours of programming that TSN has lined up from 12-5 tomorrow that it is some what eventful. Also linked to this will be my announcement of my Western Conference Favorite Team that I have still yet to divulge as I am really trying to do my due diligence between the final 2 teams on my list and the last chip to fall for that decision to be made.

Putting on a Brave Face

“My” Atlanta Braves have had a bit of a roller coaster off season. After a disappointing sub .500 season the Braves attempt to better the team has had its share of good and bad.

It all started at the winter meetings, where there was not only the perception but a real belief that they would land a number 1 pitcher in the form of Jake Peavy from the Padres. Over close to 3+ weeks of speculation it kept looking more and more like it was going to happen. Then all the talks died. This drama all ended with no deal...this would become a bit of a trend.
Player 1 Braves 0

Rafael Furcal, a former Braves shortstop and free agent was apparently ready and willing to sign with the Braves to return to Atlanta and take back his position. Then at the 11th hour he “changed his mind” for a more polite way of putting it. After getting a signed term sheet Furcal and his representation went back to the Dodgers to allow them to counter, then, in the end opted to stay in with the Dodgers. Had there not been a term sheet there would probably not been the public scene and animosity. President John Shurholtz was upset that a verbal agreement was followed by an unprecedented and unacceptable sequence of events from where he sits.
“Having been in this business for 40-some years, I’ve never seen anybody treated like that,” Schuerholz told The Atlanta-Journal Constitution. “The Atlanta Braves will no longer do business with that company -- ever. I told [agent] Arn Tellem that we can’t trust them to be honest and forthright. I told him that in all my years, I’ve never seen any [agency] act in such a despicable manner.
“It was disgusting and unprofessional. We’re a proud organization, and we won’t allow ourselves to be treated that way. I advised Arn Tellem that whatever players he represents, just scratch us off the list. Take the name of the Atlanta Braves off their speed dial. They can deal with the other 29 clubs, and we’ll deal with the other hundred agents.”
Players 2 Braves 0

Again there was much speculation that the Braves were one of the favorites in the A.J. Burnett sweepstakes. Now I wasn’t as bitter that they eventually lost out because I have seen him under perform in Toronto up until last season, conveniently a opt-out season. Burnett was offered a huge deal in Atlanta but decided to trade it in for a little more with the Yankees. In any event just another in a long line of high profile players that didn’t have Georgia on their Mind.
Players 3 Braves 0

Future Hall of Fame pitcher John Smoltz, even though he is still recovering from an arm injury opted not to wait until he was full healed and signed a deal with the Boston Red Sox. The Braves who have had issues with the health of their rotation over the last couple of years (see entire rotation, especially Mike Hampton who was by all accounts stealing money based on his contract) looked to be waiting for more info on the progress and have lost yet another big player and gained yet another hole in their lineup.
Players 4 Braves 0

The Braves managed to actually acquire some players this off season, perhaps some were a little under the radar and not the big name splashes that they would have hoped for. They managed to help out their troubled rotation but acquiring Javier Vazquez and new Japanese player Kenshin Kawakami. With Tim Hudson recovering from Tommy John surgery they will be good middle of the line pitchers that should eat up some innings.
Players 4 Braves 1

The Braves Then finally was able to both sign and close a deal for “Ace” Derek Lowe. Perhaps not as big a deal as C.C. Sabathia or K-Rod but at this point I guess beggars can’t be choosers. Low even though he is slightly older still should have a little life in his arm and being a ground ball pitcher may help him out...provided he gets a little help by his defense, and of course some support from his offence.
Players 4 Braves 2

Most recently was the report that another Future Hall of Fame member wanted to fulfill a wish and play for the Braves. Ken Griffey Jr. apparently made a call to Chipper Jones and asked for info on the team and to let GM Frank Wren that he was interested in playing in Atlanta. Then came the reports that the Braves were on the verge of signing the free agent...followed by the news that in fact Griffey had opted to sign in Seattle and become yet another player to shun the Braves this off season. When told of Griffey’s decision on Wednesday night, Jones was somewhat upset about the fact he felt he’d wasted his time while providing information that he felt Griffey was seeking in an attempt to land in Atlanta. “It’s just another person who shunned us,” said Jones.
Players 5 Braves 2

The Braves were able to sign Kelly Johnson, Jeff Franceour and Tom Glavine to 1 year deals. All come with at least some baggage whether it be for on field performance or can they get back to the level that they either once had or has had expected of them. Franceour need to have a bounce back to the player he was when he first came up. Glavine just needs to be steady and log some innings, he is not expected to be the Ace but just a piece of the puzzle, at his age being a leader will be a big asset. Not knowing how they will perform that only gives the Braves 1 Run.
Players 5 Braves 3.

After I had written the majority of this post there was finally another development on this issue. The Braves managed to get another quality left handed bat to sign on the dotted line, perhaps one even more significant then Junior. Garrett Anderson signed a 1 year $2.5M contract that should help fill the void in left and help out in the platoon situations that will arise in the outfield this season. Anderson still can be productive provided he stays healthy. This may be a wild card signing bit at a decent price could pay dividends and help protect Chipper Jones in the lineup.
Players 5 Braves 4

In the end they still have fallen a little short by at least they kept it close and were competitive. Lets hope that they over achieve this season and get back close to the top of the East again, a spot that they deserve to get back to.