The Off Season Guessing Game

The baseball Hot Stove Season is now upon us and the rumour mill is already in effect as it relates to Free Agency. What I would like to do is start writing blogs on what the Atlanta Braves might do, what they have done and  what the team may look like on opening day. Yeah, that isn’t happening, and nor will it for now and for the foreseeable future.

Trying to guess what Braves GM John Coppolella  and the Braves front office is thinking is like trying to understand why cats do the things that they do. Trying to predict what will be the next shoe to fall as it relates to the rebuilding process and then the other side of that coin of fielding a somewhat competitive team in 2016.

Just when you think the Braves are done their wheeling and dealing for young controllable arms they make another deal. Then you think all the roster players that may go are gone, another deal is made to free up money.

Trying to predict the next big splash is anyone’s guess and maybe even those same decision makers don’t even know right now. The one (or two) whispers that are a little confusing is the bantering about of names like Shelby Miller and Julio Tehran. With all the arms that the Braves have and are acquiring, they have not yet began to flip some of that pitching into some legitimate bats but that is likely bound to happen at some point. The question is from what pool are the Braves going to draw from. Miller was the Braves Ace last year. A lot of fans may not know that by looking at his 6-17 record but he was the victim of VERY POOR offence and a VERY SHAKEY bullpen. If they can flip him for a really good young player under club control for at lest as much as Miller or more the Braves would seriously have to look at making that move. Tehran can be all world or struggle mightily. He was up and down last year but began to seemingly figure things out the last 2 months of the season.

The one adage in baseball has always been, “when you think you have enough pitching, go out and get some more.” But those people have never seen just how anemic the Braves offence was at the end of the 2015 season.

If the team wants to be good going into SunTrust Field in 2017 there needs to be some core pieces in place sometime during the 2016 season. At some point some of those pieces have to come to town at some point.

So without getting into specific names, what we can do is ask questions about what the team might do in the Rule 5 Draft and also what they may do on the international free agent market next year with the flexibility they attempted to gain as part of previous deals that has also procured that plethora of good young prospect arms. Is there someone out there that the Braves are looking at that could provide a big bat that they so sorely need.

So instead of answering questions I guess I will just have to ask a bunch. How much money is available. What is more of a priority, fixing the offence or building a bullpen that is not going to go into critical meltdown 80% of the time they are called upon. With all the potential good young arms waiting in the wings you are going to need to have catchers that can work and help bring along some of the young guys that may make the big league roster. That is why signing AJ Prizinski was a smart move, sure he swung a decent bat last season but also seemed to work well with the young pitchers he handled last season. He is worth the investment if he can help bring along the young arms.

The Value of a Win

I have had a long, misguided, and over-appreciated view of what a win really means in baseball. At least in terms of what a win is as it relates to a pitcher.

There was a time when I thought you could look at a pitchers record and ell if he was having a good season or not. Was this pitcher worthy of winning a Cy Young or even be considered an ace without 18+ wins? At one time I probably would have said no. I felt like consistency and good pitching go hand in hand and the results would usually, over the course of a 182 game season work itself out. I no longer believe this.

Even bad teams will win a lot of games, so one could conclude that even a good pitcher on a bad team is going to get positive results. The failure rate in most categories in baseball is so great that one would figure that even the bad will beat a good on any given night.

What I am learning about good pitching and good numbers are that strictly looking at win totals does no good at all. Sure, I will submit that there is something to be said for some guys that just manage to 'get it done', 'rise to the occasion', or simply 'just win, baby'. But in the big picture you can't just look at that.

After watching the Braves this season seemingly give up at least the first run on just about every night, but it seems like it is multiple runs early in the game. it makes it a lot more difficult to play from behind all the time and  not getting early runs is not helping anyone. When the Braves do score it seems like it is just one or 2 runs and then the bats go quiet again. This is leaving the Braves pitchers out on an island to fend for themselves. Sure there have been some stinkers thrown by the rotation, but on the whole, as a complete rotation they have been sensational. Considering at the beginning of the season it looked like the 5 man group had be decimated and that that was going to be the Braves downfall right from the get go.

On a season that looked so promising with a rotation that look like it could be Julio Tehran, Kris Medlan, Brandon Beachy, Gavin Floyd, and Mike Minor and or the possibility of Freddy Garcia, There was talk that maybe a 6 man rotation would be the way to go for the first month and see how that went. The team looked deep in that position, looked like a solid playoff calibre team that was ready to play any National League team.

That nice depth of quality arms looked to put the Braves in a position of strength and offered high optimism heading into April. Then the wheels went off the track and things began to go sideways. Medlan - Tommy John (again), Beachy Tommy John (again), Gavin Floyd looked good on his rehab then boom - Tommy John (again). Suddenly things down in Peachtree nation wasn't looking quite so peachy.

It was easy to be greatly concerned that this was going to devastate the team and just crush the team coming out of the gates a bury them early. Freddy Garcia was let go in what at the time seemed a strange decision and Aaron Harang was brought in off the scrap heap from Cleveland. Ervin Santana was swept away from at least 1 other team, at least one AL East team with a 14.1M 1 year contract. It looked like the season was going to be cut down at the knees because of the pitching. That was far from true. They were almost all the shining stars on a team that was just not able to sustain a consistent offence that, by the end of the season, was all but dried up. This is why the win for pitchers mean so little. You can pitch your ass off and get rewarded with either no support, blown leads from the bullpen or no help until it is too late. Even as a Braves fan I feel for Cole Hammels a bit as he seems to get the same amount of support that the entire Braves staff was given the majority of the season.

How Craig Kimbrell managed to rack up 46 saves is almost mind blowing. I guess with that said the Braves could not or would not score much of any runs until the 7-8 or 9th innings. The way a game is played out is directly influenced but the team that can jump out and score even a few early runs...it just takes the pressure off that you just can't plate guys.

With all the teams in the NL East poised to be better next season through nothing more than just getting healthy the Braves need to bolster a roster/lineup that can manufacture some runs. If they could not do it this year with the diminished staffs from other NL East teams then they are going to need some much different faces and approaches next year and maybe then some of these well tossed games and efforts by the pitching staff will not go to waste as often.

Making sure the deal today doesn't bite you tomorrow

The balancing act when trading for now but not getting burned in the future

There is always a risk when making a trade in any sport, especially baseball. It is usually less risky when making a player for player deal as, for the most part, with established players you have a pretty good idea what you are giving and what you are getting. Also there is less of a financial penalty because there is no salary cap. A deal may hurt your budget but not necessarily cripple the team. Of course injuries that may crop up are out of anyone's control. The Ian Kinsler/ Prince Fielder trade between the Texas Ranger and the Detroit Tigers is evidence of that. Tigers look to come out way ahead of that one so far with Fielder possibly out for the season with neck surgery.

 

Where deals are a little more cloudy is when you start throwing prospects into the mix. This happens a lot near the trade deadline for teams that look to get an established arm or bat to help in a push for the post season or for a World Series run. Eliminated teams will often deal top end players that will not help them in the short term and get top end prospects to help them get better in the long term. It is a tough balancing act on how much teams are willing to give up in terms of the future for players that can be dropped into the line-up right away.

Every team has stories about winning and losing deals with this practice. As a Braves fan I know all to well that one can hit a huge home run when the prospect that you trade for becomes a soon to be Hall of Fame member. It started with the Braves trading Duane Ward to Toronto for Doyal Alexander. Then Alexander was traded to the Tigers for Prospect John Smoltz. Not a bad deal, Alexander went 9-0 and helped the Tigers win the AL East, Smoltz went on the be part of one of the best rotations ever assembled in the last 50 years. There is also trades that looking back involving prospects that look less then favorable as a Braves fan. 1 Career year for JD Drew and Eli Mararo to the Braves for competent reliever Ray King, Jason Marquis (who was still decent at the time) and, this is where it hurts - prospect Adam Wainwright (he turned out pretty good). The other prospect trade that looks bad now was the deal that brought Mark Texteria and Ron Mahay to Hot-Lanta for  Beau Jones, Elvis Andrus (Starting SS-close to 30sb per yr), Neftali Feliz (40 saves in 2010), Matt Harrison (won 18 in 2012) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

 

The best trade of late that was not made was the deal that would have sent Randall Delgado to the Cubs in a deadline deal that would have seen Ryan Dempster sent to the Braves. Thankfully Dempster vito'd the trade and the Braves retained the rights to Delgado. Delgado was then used as a key piece that brought Justin Upton to The ATL with 3B Chris Johnson for  Nick Ahmed (minors), Brandon Drury (minors), Randall Delgado, Martin Prado and Zeke Spruill. Had Delgado been traded to the Cubs for 1yr of Dempster the Braves may have had to include Julio Teheran as part of the Upton deal. Not something the Braves I imagine would have either wanted to or would have been willing to do.

Six Flags Over Atlanta

It has been a Roller Coaster week at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in the middle of Walt Disney World® Resort.

It all started when #1 starter Kris Medlan hopped off the mound, holding and flexing his elbow and forearm. This was a sight that has been seen before and that resulted in him taking an unwanted trip to Alabama. Lets make this clear, not good happens on trips to Alabama unless you are a QB, WR, RB or a 300lbs Lineman. This trip was to the clinic of the number one, but most hated name by fans in all sports, Dr. James Andrews. Dr. Andrews is the foremost authority and surgeon for Tommy John reconstructive surgery.

For the second time Medlan left a game and it is not only feared but is generally believed that  he will have to undergo a second Tommy John procedure and will likely miss the entire season and probably the first bit of the beginning of next season. A lot of people are not aware of Medlan as he is not as well known and is regarded as one of the most under appreciated and under the radar pitcher in all of baseball. Since his return he is second to only Clayton Kershaw in ERA (2.47). Needless to say a big loss the the Braves rotation and team.

Just when you think things are starting to look bleak in terms of the rotation, the next man up, another Tommy John client took the mound in a Spring outing. Brandon Beachy still working his way back after being shut down last season after his return from the procedure. Since then he has had another smaller procedure to clean things up. Beachy started the game and was pitching well but then he too had to shut it down early mid game. In terms of Beachy, at least it seems like he just needs of rest and strengthen his arm but in any event he will not be ready to start the season when the teams breaks camp.

A once relatively deep and good looking young staff has been decimated in a very short period of time. The Braves wasted little time in addressing this gaping hole in their team that has been built to try to win now. 2-9 in the lineup are a pretty solid team on paper. If BJ Upton and Dan Uggla can bounce back and be just average the lineup has the potential to be a strong one. After brutal seasons by both those guys anything above average should bolster an already solid offensive line up.

Then right out of the blue Braves GM Frank Wren jump at the lone big name free agent out there Ervin Santana.  Santana is liked by many and questioned by maybe more. Wherever you sit on this guy it was a gutsy move that had to be done. Was it the right move?  Maybe, maybe not, but it was a gamble that had to be made. The Braves had to show their fans that they are willing to spend to make the team better and more importantly show the team that management is backing you and believe they are a good club and are expecting to win.

The deal is for 1 year for $14.1M. Like they say there is no bad one year deal. The one knock is that they had to give up the ever valuable 1st rd pick to the Royals who qualified Santana. That is the bad news. Here is the good news.The Braves have stated they are here to win not rebuild so losing the pick is the cost of doing business. Santana's $14 million salary wasn't in the budget, and the Braves do stick to budgets. Teams that do that have to be prepared to make difficult decisions. If that means walking away from a player they love -- Tim Hudson, for instance -- they do it. You have to give to get.

The Braves do have a silver lining for this too that help take the sting out of losing that pick. They are getting one from the Yankees for the Brian McCann signing and also they may be able to recoup that pick next year if they qualify Santana and he declines and tries his luck again in free agency for a long term deal.

Santana is coming to the National League for the first time. It is known as more pitcher friendly league and the stadiums lend themselves to being a little more forgiving as well. An added benefit for Santana to boost his stock this year is that the Braves on paper are a decent team but also have one of the best defenses in the NL. The outfield has speed and good gloves, the infield has the best defensive SS in all of baseball in Andralton Simmons and Freddie Freeman can pick it as well as any first baseman in the game. I know it sounds weird that a guy that sports a sideways straight brimmed hat can create this buzz but it is true. here is a quote from Richard Justice’s piece on the issue ”...Santana has pitched 200-plus innings in three of the past four seasons, and only James Shields, Max Scherzer and C.J. Wilson had more quality starts among American League pitchers in 2013. Santana is a low-key, professional guy who will fit well in the Atlanta culture.”

Hopefully the team can break from spring training without any more injuries and get off to a decent start. It looks like it will start with Julio Tehran, Alex Wood, Freddy Garcia and David Hale.

Hopefully they can then get some help with Minor, Beachy and Santana coming back hopefully in the first month and then Gavin Floyd sometime in mid May.

It will be an interesting beginning to the season and if they can stay afloat until they get some reinforcements back they should be in a good position to keep up with or close to the Washington Nationals.

Atlanta Braves: Locking Up The Core

In a few short years the Atlanta Braves will be leaving their home lovingly known as 'The Ted' aka Turner Field. Turner Field and was built for the 1996 Atlanta Summer Games, it was then transformed into the new home for the Braves the move there from Atlanta Fulton County Stadium aka 'the launching pad'.  Turner Field, named after former owner and a media mogul Ted Turner is owned by the city of Atlanta and is now starting to show its age. By the time the braves moved to their new location it will be roughly 20 years old. Not that old by building standards but the fact that it is not owned by the ball club limits and what they can do in terms of upgrades and what revenue they can generate for themselves. For instance parking and concessions.

It is widely regarded that teams than build their own stadiums will receive and immediate bumping in revenue streams, that higher ticket sales and more people to the park. It stands to reason that if you're making more money you have more money available that can be put toward payroll. With the Braves owning the building in being the primary tenant has seemingly allowed the Braves to open up their wallets this off-season. GM Frank Wren has been given the authority and financial flexibility to identify the young core of the Braves moving forward.  Not only is moving into a new stadium helping their financial commitments, national television money as well as regional TV rights are allowing the braves to up their payroll. It has been a few years, probably not since Ted Turner sold the team to AOL Time Warner that the Braves have been in a position to spend a little more money.

GM Frank Wren and upper management have clearly made in a mandate to lock up their young core of players and haven't already begun that process this off-season. The Braves had three major young arbitration eligible players that they needed to take care of this off-season. In the beginning it and looked like they were going to be a file and a trial team. This basically means the player gave them a number they thought they deserved and the team did the same. A hearing would be held to decide which dumber would be used for the upcoming season. It appear the braves were going to take their chances on one ever the ruling was in each case for a one year deal.

It was then that the report came in that first baseman Freddie Freeman had signed an 8yr $135M contract. Freeman was in the running for NL MVP this past season and is currently only 24 and has now received the richest contract in teams history.  Right now it looks like he used to be tented as the new face of the franchise, ironically enough, taking that title from his good buddy Chipper Jones. After that deal was made and probably realizing that the free agent crop this year was not that deep the Braves came to terms on another in young potential star Jason Heyward on a 2 yr $13M deal.  Heyward is coming off a tough injury plagued season where he was sidelined after an emergency appendectomy for a few weeks, than came back and was inserted at the top the lineup where he and the team thrived during a double digit winning streak. Then an untimely (not that there is ever a good time) pitch to the face that fractured his orbital bone sent him to the DL again.  Because of all the missed time it was hard for the two sides to come up with a good mutual number on a long-term deal. If Heyward is able to stay healthy and produce to the level in which he and the team expects then they can begin to look at a multi-year extension.

At this point the braves surprised many people by turning their focus to one of their young key starters. Braves announced they had signed Julio Teheran to a six-year $32.4 million extension that includes an option for the 2020 season. If the option is exercised, the 23-year-old pitcher will earn $44.4 million over the next seven seasons.  Given the price of any of the top free agent pitchers each year, locking up Teheran now and buying out his arbitration years could potentially be a team friendly contract.  Even though he is young there's still a risk that the team is taking.  One can never predict injuries or drop off in skill when it comes to pitchers.  They're the biggest gamble of all.  Pick correctly and you set yourself up to be a contender for years to come, pick wrong and you have a very expensive player pitching at your AAA affiliate....  Blue Jays and Ricky Romero I am looking in your direction.

It looked like at that point the Braves would be done and have a whole off-season biz is taking care of, except of course the arbitration hearing for young closer Craig Kimbrel. It was thought that Kimbrel would go through the process get a one year deal and then the braves would have to decide how much they were willing to invest in a player who will only pitches one the inning, the ninth.  Sure it is a very important inning, when teams have to decide how important and how much money to allocate to that position.  It is a risky proposition to sign a closer to a big money multi-year deal.  The Braves have decided to take that risk and sign Kimbrel to a four year $42M deal.  Kimbrel has only been in the league for three seasons but has already proven himself to be one of the premier closer's in baseball and has had his name mentioned the last couple of years in both the CY Young and MVP categories.  The Braves are clearly taking your risk on him be able to sustain the level he is currently at.  If he is able to do so he will almost definitely and live up to his once on a  generation player type contract that he signed.  Hopefully for the Braves sake he can do that and not end up like a guy and within an anchor contract that has been given in the past to closer's like Randy Myers, Jonathan Paplebon and perhaps worst of all BJ Ryan.

I like with the Braves have done and have identified their core group and lock them up for the foreseeable future.  Sure they have are taking a risk but based on the age of the productivity and grooves that the players have shown thus far in their development, hopefully the moves will pay off in the long run and keep these guys together as perennial contenders.

To help the Braves keep the same winning message, they have just extended 2 more pieces of their core...on the management side. GM Frank Wren and manager Fredi Gonzalez have both come to terms with the team. This is a good sign, stability in a good franchise with a winning culture is key. Confidence breeds confidence and winning breeds winning.

Just as I was about to post this blog word came down that the The Braves have just signed Andrelton Simmons to a 7 yr 58M contract extension. Simmons now joins fellow teammates Freeman, Kimbrel, Teheran being locked up in the Atlanta system and putting them in a position to be in the organization when they make the move to their new stadium in 2017. Simmons is widely regarded as one of the best defensive shortstops in the Majors. He also has showed that he has the  ability to impact games with his bat as well. He has very good offensive numbers and can  provide a little bit of pop as well. If he continues to improve as he gains more time this could be a great set up for the Braves over the next 5 years. It is an interesting plan that the Braves have to ensure that this group of guys will get to play and grow together.

The Braves have always been a consistent team but seemingly have constant turn over. With the
majority of their core being so young gives them the unique chance to set their line up as well as give the franchise a good idea of what there payroll will be and what they are able to do with other home grown talent as well as what they can and can not due in terms of  free agency. Sometimes making a big splash with a free agent signing is not nearly as important as the deals you can get done with guys you have drafted and/or developed.

It is interesting to note that former Cleveland Indians executive John Hart, who is now in the front office with the braves was one of the first GM's to utilize the strategy of identifying and wrapping up a core of young players.  Back in the early nineties Hart watched the Pirates lose key players like Barry Bonds and Bobby Bonillia because once they reach to free agency they were too expensive for the small market Pirates to afford. Hart rolled the dice by signing Sandy Alomar Jr. and Carlos Baerga to long-term deals before they were eligible for arbitration. This set the stage for long-term deals that likely kept Omar Vizquel, Jim Thome, Albert Belle and Manny Ramirez in Cleveland longer than if all of these players had been allowed to go through the arbitration process.

The Braves hitter knee identified this strategy as one that they would attempt to do even before hart joined the club but his knowledge and insight clearly help get all parties on the same page.

It will be interesting to see how these players perform going forward but if these players pan out and can form the core that the Braves hope they can they should be able to be in a position to contend each year for a division title and it hopefully also a playoff spot.
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