Atlanta Braves look to surprise with re-vamped team

Former Braves closer Kimbrel a bad contract casualty as well as an unnecessary luxury on a team that is in re-tooling mode

There are a lot of people out thre that are upset with the timing of the Atlanta Braves most recent trade of Melvin Upton Jr. (formerly B.J.) and All Star and probably the best closer in the majors Craig Kimbrel to the San Diego Padres on the eve of the season opener. Had the deal been done when the Braves were clearly in ‘trade mode’ and appearing as if they were just re-tooling but clearly such a deal was not available at the time or it would have been made.

The Braves made it clear that they are re-stocking for the near future and the corresponding move to the new SunTrust Field in 2017 but it looked like they still thought they could be a top runner in the Eastern Division. Because of the previous trades that were made with Gattis, Upton and Heyward having an all star closer like Kimbrel was more of a luxury then a necessity. After the acquisition of former closers Jason Grilli and Jim Johnson there was some flexibility in terms of the closers roll in the Braves pen. GM John Hart made it clear that the team was not shopping Kimbrell but that the team had been approached by a number of teams about his availability. He appears to be the casualty of an albatross of a contract by the wildly under performing and overpayment of Upton JR. San Diego is going to take on all of Upton’s salary in order to get Kimbrel. When you can shed that contract and roster spot from the books you almost have to make that deal. They acquired Cameron Maybin and Carlos Quentin, two highly regarded prospects -- right-handed pitcher Matt Wisler and outfielder Jordan Paroubeck -- and the 41st overall selection in this year’s First-Year Player Draft. Maybin will stay with the team but Quintin has been designated for assignment and will either be traded or released and was just involved in the deal for salary reasons and will not play for the team.

Some Braves fans may have more of an issue with this then others, but in the short term and the long term the moves seem to be done within the parameters of a master plan. Many are concerned in the short term about the direction of the club. At the moment I am not as worried. After the last few seasons of being the 27th or so ranked team in terms of  sacrifice flies, and having innings that were some combination of rally killing strikeouts and inability to move runners over and in, it will be a welcome change to watch a team that can manufacture some runs.

So many times last year the pitching was so good throughout the game but the club just seemed to be trailing more often then not until the 7th or 8th. Combine that with only having 0-2 runs at that time became frustrating for fans and likely and more importantly the starters that were being taxed with high pressure innings every outing just to keep game in reach in hopes of a home run that often never came. Free swinging and hero-ball mentality did not work very often and that caught up with the team late in the season taking them right out of contention in both games and the divisional standings.

With all the off season moves there seems to be a concerted effort to play ball the right way, a more traditional National League style with an emphasis on speed and defence. The lineup flexibility and the ability to manage different situations and not rely on inconsistent and dwindling power production. A team that can manufacture runs is a more enjoyable style to watch for sure. Speed is fun and seldom slumps...the only downside is you can’t steal 1st base so walks and singles carry even more emphasis.

To all those people who are worried about the on field product this season, maybe reserve judgement for a bit. Lets see what we got here. The rotation, especially when Minor returns from the DL looks to be respectable and the re-vamped lineup looks like it could be sneaky decent. The addition of former closers Jason Grilli and Jim Johnson as set up man and closer should help offset the loss of Kimbrel and provide a solid 1-2 punch on the back end.

For a team that clearly has a goal of re-stocking their minor league clubs and adding young controllable assets the on field product looks competitive and that bodes well for when all the young prospects they managed to get via all the off season trades and transactions are ready to take the next step.
So lets not judge the direction of decisions too soon there is a lot of ball to be played and if you play it the right way an play hard there might be some good value on this squad.

Just look at center field, the bar is not set too high for Eric Young Jr. - hit .204, strike out less then half the time and have 30+ stolen bases and your already almost better then Melvin ‘don’t call me BJ’ Upton and his $46.3 Mil still owed to him.

Kimbrel was the casualty of former GM Frank Wren’s miscue in signing Upton, the then free agent to an unworthy amount and length of term contract. They are all now gone and it is time for the team to move on.

Is Kimbrel A Luxury Asset?

What is his value to a revamped Braves team and is it greater then what they can get for him now or at the trade deadline?

With all the moves the Atlanta Braves have done this off-season there is still one very important question left to be answered, what should they do with Craig Kimbrel? Do you keep a closer that may not have as many opportunities on a team that you don’t know what they are yet or if they will be able to compete in enough games to make it worth keeping Kimbrel around.

Kimbrel is a fan favorite, is locked up for the next few years and is one of the most dominant relievers in baseball. With that said, does it make a lot of sense to hang onto a closer that may not get the chance to save as many games. Maybe now is not the best time to move him as typically moving a reliever closer to the deadline will garner a more bountiful return. By waiting, you can also see how the team is handling the newly re-vamped roster. Maybe they ride a good starting rotation and are able to manufacture more runs then anticipated and surprise a lot of people. If not then having the unnecessary luxury of a closer does not make as much sense.

The Braves are trying to gear up for their move to SunTrust Park in 2017, and likely by that time Kimbrel’s value would not likely be as high as it would be now. If some of the new arms that were acquired this off season look like they have rebounded from down years then maybe there is a capable guy there that can step into that role in the interim.

A possible return that could be retrieved might just be enough for GM John Hart to part with his golden armed closer and get some more assets in his quest to prepare the Braves for their move to SunTrust.

Recent deals that have included the likes of Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Evan Gattis have brought back many top prospects, most of them young arms. On a team that also has many questions on offence some quality bats could be a nice and welcomed addition.

There is still time before the season for Hart to address that, especially in left field. There are still some free agents still available as well so that could also affect the teams willingness and/or need to move Kimbrel anytime soon. 

The Value of a Win

I have had a long, misguided, and over-appreciated view of what a win really means in baseball. At least in terms of what a win is as it relates to a pitcher.

There was a time when I thought you could look at a pitchers record and ell if he was having a good season or not. Was this pitcher worthy of winning a Cy Young or even be considered an ace without 18+ wins? At one time I probably would have said no. I felt like consistency and good pitching go hand in hand and the results would usually, over the course of a 182 game season work itself out. I no longer believe this.

Even bad teams will win a lot of games, so one could conclude that even a good pitcher on a bad team is going to get positive results. The failure rate in most categories in baseball is so great that one would figure that even the bad will beat a good on any given night.

What I am learning about good pitching and good numbers are that strictly looking at win totals does no good at all. Sure, I will submit that there is something to be said for some guys that just manage to 'get it done', 'rise to the occasion', or simply 'just win, baby'. But in the big picture you can't just look at that.

After watching the Braves this season seemingly give up at least the first run on just about every night, but it seems like it is multiple runs early in the game. it makes it a lot more difficult to play from behind all the time and  not getting early runs is not helping anyone. When the Braves do score it seems like it is just one or 2 runs and then the bats go quiet again. This is leaving the Braves pitchers out on an island to fend for themselves. Sure there have been some stinkers thrown by the rotation, but on the whole, as a complete rotation they have been sensational. Considering at the beginning of the season it looked like the 5 man group had be decimated and that that was going to be the Braves downfall right from the get go.

On a season that looked so promising with a rotation that look like it could be Julio Tehran, Kris Medlan, Brandon Beachy, Gavin Floyd, and Mike Minor and or the possibility of Freddy Garcia, There was talk that maybe a 6 man rotation would be the way to go for the first month and see how that went. The team looked deep in that position, looked like a solid playoff calibre team that was ready to play any National League team.

That nice depth of quality arms looked to put the Braves in a position of strength and offered high optimism heading into April. Then the wheels went off the track and things began to go sideways. Medlan - Tommy John (again), Beachy Tommy John (again), Gavin Floyd looked good on his rehab then boom - Tommy John (again). Suddenly things down in Peachtree nation wasn't looking quite so peachy.

It was easy to be greatly concerned that this was going to devastate the team and just crush the team coming out of the gates a bury them early. Freddy Garcia was let go in what at the time seemed a strange decision and Aaron Harang was brought in off the scrap heap from Cleveland. Ervin Santana was swept away from at least 1 other team, at least one AL East team with a 14.1M 1 year contract. It looked like the season was going to be cut down at the knees because of the pitching. That was far from true. They were almost all the shining stars on a team that was just not able to sustain a consistent offence that, by the end of the season, was all but dried up. This is why the win for pitchers mean so little. You can pitch your ass off and get rewarded with either no support, blown leads from the bullpen or no help until it is too late. Even as a Braves fan I feel for Cole Hammels a bit as he seems to get the same amount of support that the entire Braves staff was given the majority of the season.

How Craig Kimbrell managed to rack up 46 saves is almost mind blowing. I guess with that said the Braves could not or would not score much of any runs until the 7-8 or 9th innings. The way a game is played out is directly influenced but the team that can jump out and score even a few early runs...it just takes the pressure off that you just can't plate guys.

With all the teams in the NL East poised to be better next season through nothing more than just getting healthy the Braves need to bolster a roster/lineup that can manufacture some runs. If they could not do it this year with the diminished staffs from other NL East teams then they are going to need some much different faces and approaches next year and maybe then some of these well tossed games and efforts by the pitching staff will not go to waste as often.

Atlanta Braves: Locking Up The Core

In a few short years the Atlanta Braves will be leaving their home lovingly known as 'The Ted' aka Turner Field. Turner Field and was built for the 1996 Atlanta Summer Games, it was then transformed into the new home for the Braves the move there from Atlanta Fulton County Stadium aka 'the launching pad'.  Turner Field, named after former owner and a media mogul Ted Turner is owned by the city of Atlanta and is now starting to show its age. By the time the braves moved to their new location it will be roughly 20 years old. Not that old by building standards but the fact that it is not owned by the ball club limits and what they can do in terms of upgrades and what revenue they can generate for themselves. For instance parking and concessions.

It is widely regarded that teams than build their own stadiums will receive and immediate bumping in revenue streams, that higher ticket sales and more people to the park. It stands to reason that if you're making more money you have more money available that can be put toward payroll. With the Braves owning the building in being the primary tenant has seemingly allowed the Braves to open up their wallets this off-season. GM Frank Wren has been given the authority and financial flexibility to identify the young core of the Braves moving forward.  Not only is moving into a new stadium helping their financial commitments, national television money as well as regional TV rights are allowing the braves to up their payroll. It has been a few years, probably not since Ted Turner sold the team to AOL Time Warner that the Braves have been in a position to spend a little more money.

GM Frank Wren and upper management have clearly made in a mandate to lock up their young core of players and haven't already begun that process this off-season. The Braves had three major young arbitration eligible players that they needed to take care of this off-season. In the beginning it and looked like they were going to be a file and a trial team. This basically means the player gave them a number they thought they deserved and the team did the same. A hearing would be held to decide which dumber would be used for the upcoming season. It appear the braves were going to take their chances on one ever the ruling was in each case for a one year deal.

It was then that the report came in that first baseman Freddie Freeman had signed an 8yr $135M contract. Freeman was in the running for NL MVP this past season and is currently only 24 and has now received the richest contract in teams history.  Right now it looks like he used to be tented as the new face of the franchise, ironically enough, taking that title from his good buddy Chipper Jones. After that deal was made and probably realizing that the free agent crop this year was not that deep the Braves came to terms on another in young potential star Jason Heyward on a 2 yr $13M deal.  Heyward is coming off a tough injury plagued season where he was sidelined after an emergency appendectomy for a few weeks, than came back and was inserted at the top the lineup where he and the team thrived during a double digit winning streak. Then an untimely (not that there is ever a good time) pitch to the face that fractured his orbital bone sent him to the DL again.  Because of all the missed time it was hard for the two sides to come up with a good mutual number on a long-term deal. If Heyward is able to stay healthy and produce to the level in which he and the team expects then they can begin to look at a multi-year extension.

At this point the braves surprised many people by turning their focus to one of their young key starters. Braves announced they had signed Julio Teheran to a six-year $32.4 million extension that includes an option for the 2020 season. If the option is exercised, the 23-year-old pitcher will earn $44.4 million over the next seven seasons.  Given the price of any of the top free agent pitchers each year, locking up Teheran now and buying out his arbitration years could potentially be a team friendly contract.  Even though he is young there's still a risk that the team is taking.  One can never predict injuries or drop off in skill when it comes to pitchers.  They're the biggest gamble of all.  Pick correctly and you set yourself up to be a contender for years to come, pick wrong and you have a very expensive player pitching at your AAA affiliate....  Blue Jays and Ricky Romero I am looking in your direction.

It looked like at that point the Braves would be done and have a whole off-season biz is taking care of, except of course the arbitration hearing for young closer Craig Kimbrel. It was thought that Kimbrel would go through the process get a one year deal and then the braves would have to decide how much they were willing to invest in a player who will only pitches one the inning, the ninth.  Sure it is a very important inning, when teams have to decide how important and how much money to allocate to that position.  It is a risky proposition to sign a closer to a big money multi-year deal.  The Braves have decided to take that risk and sign Kimbrel to a four year $42M deal.  Kimbrel has only been in the league for three seasons but has already proven himself to be one of the premier closer's in baseball and has had his name mentioned the last couple of years in both the CY Young and MVP categories.  The Braves are clearly taking your risk on him be able to sustain the level he is currently at.  If he is able to do so he will almost definitely and live up to his once on a  generation player type contract that he signed.  Hopefully for the Braves sake he can do that and not end up like a guy and within an anchor contract that has been given in the past to closer's like Randy Myers, Jonathan Paplebon and perhaps worst of all BJ Ryan.

I like with the Braves have done and have identified their core group and lock them up for the foreseeable future.  Sure they have are taking a risk but based on the age of the productivity and grooves that the players have shown thus far in their development, hopefully the moves will pay off in the long run and keep these guys together as perennial contenders.

To help the Braves keep the same winning message, they have just extended 2 more pieces of their core...on the management side. GM Frank Wren and manager Fredi Gonzalez have both come to terms with the team. This is a good sign, stability in a good franchise with a winning culture is key. Confidence breeds confidence and winning breeds winning.

Just as I was about to post this blog word came down that the The Braves have just signed Andrelton Simmons to a 7 yr 58M contract extension. Simmons now joins fellow teammates Freeman, Kimbrel, Teheran being locked up in the Atlanta system and putting them in a position to be in the organization when they make the move to their new stadium in 2017. Simmons is widely regarded as one of the best defensive shortstops in the Majors. He also has showed that he has the  ability to impact games with his bat as well. He has very good offensive numbers and can  provide a little bit of pop as well. If he continues to improve as he gains more time this could be a great set up for the Braves over the next 5 years. It is an interesting plan that the Braves have to ensure that this group of guys will get to play and grow together.

The Braves have always been a consistent team but seemingly have constant turn over. With the
majority of their core being so young gives them the unique chance to set their line up as well as give the franchise a good idea of what there payroll will be and what they are able to do with other home grown talent as well as what they can and can not due in terms of  free agency. Sometimes making a big splash with a free agent signing is not nearly as important as the deals you can get done with guys you have drafted and/or developed.

It is interesting to note that former Cleveland Indians executive John Hart, who is now in the front office with the braves was one of the first GM's to utilize the strategy of identifying and wrapping up a core of young players.  Back in the early nineties Hart watched the Pirates lose key players like Barry Bonds and Bobby Bonillia because once they reach to free agency they were too expensive for the small market Pirates to afford. Hart rolled the dice by signing Sandy Alomar Jr. and Carlos Baerga to long-term deals before they were eligible for arbitration. This set the stage for long-term deals that likely kept Omar Vizquel, Jim Thome, Albert Belle and Manny Ramirez in Cleveland longer than if all of these players had been allowed to go through the arbitration process.

The Braves hitter knee identified this strategy as one that they would attempt to do even before hart joined the club but his knowledge and insight clearly help get all parties on the same page.

It will be interesting to see how these players perform going forward but if these players pan out and can form the core that the Braves hope they can they should be able to be in a position to contend each year for a division title and it hopefully also a playoff spot.
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