Is Kimbrel A Luxury Asset?

What is his value to a revamped Braves team and is it greater then what they can get for him now or at the trade deadline?

With all the moves the Atlanta Braves have done this off-season there is still one very important question left to be answered, what should they do with Craig Kimbrel? Do you keep a closer that may not have as many opportunities on a team that you don’t know what they are yet or if they will be able to compete in enough games to make it worth keeping Kimbrel around.

Kimbrel is a fan favorite, is locked up for the next few years and is one of the most dominant relievers in baseball. With that said, does it make a lot of sense to hang onto a closer that may not get the chance to save as many games. Maybe now is not the best time to move him as typically moving a reliever closer to the deadline will garner a more bountiful return. By waiting, you can also see how the team is handling the newly re-vamped roster. Maybe they ride a good starting rotation and are able to manufacture more runs then anticipated and surprise a lot of people. If not then having the unnecessary luxury of a closer does not make as much sense.

The Braves are trying to gear up for their move to SunTrust Park in 2017, and likely by that time Kimbrel’s value would not likely be as high as it would be now. If some of the new arms that were acquired this off season look like they have rebounded from down years then maybe there is a capable guy there that can step into that role in the interim.

A possible return that could be retrieved might just be enough for GM John Hart to part with his golden armed closer and get some more assets in his quest to prepare the Braves for their move to SunTrust.

Recent deals that have included the likes of Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Evan Gattis have brought back many top prospects, most of them young arms. On a team that also has many questions on offence some quality bats could be a nice and welcomed addition.

There is still time before the season for Hart to address that, especially in left field. There are still some free agents still available as well so that could also affect the teams willingness and/or need to move Kimbrel anytime soon. 

Hot Stove in Hot-lanta

The Atlanta Braves have seemingly become one of the first teams to get things heated up during the Hot Stove season.

The first big blockbuster trade went down last week with the Bravo’s trading Right Fielder and Gold Glove winner Jason Heyward to the St. Louis Cardinals with relief pitcher Jordan Waldon. In exchange the Braves get Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. In addition to that the team also will save a little bit of money, get players that they can control for a few years as well as gain some added payroll flexibility. The Braves are in need of rebuilding a young, unproven starting rotation that is also filled with uncertainty  as they await finding the availability and ability of Kris Medlan and Brandon Beachy. 

The loss of Heyward is an interesting one to try to make sense of. Is this a good thing or a bad thing? How are we supposed to look at this? Are they throwing in the towel for 2015 and looking to rebuild and try to be ready for 2017 when they move into the new stadium? Is this just the first step in simply retooling? It seems that it will all depend of what shoes fall next.

John Hart and  Co. still have some big decisions to make and potentially some big deals that may or may not happen. It does seem clear that the team is looking to gain players that they are able to control for a few years that offer a little more cost certainty. What happens with Justin Upton, Evan Gattis and maybe even BJ Upton will be interesting to see. It would be interesting to see if the Braves don’t try to completely re-make their entire outfield. J-Up is set to be a free Agent and the Braves would likely be inclined to move him for a strong return. If he goes does Gattis move to left? Maybe Gattis gets moved to somewhere like KC to be a DH to take the spot that Billy Butler held. What then happens to BJ, do they hope that new hitting coach Kevin Seitzer can do something to get he to be even just a little bit productive or can he be flipped for someone else’s bad contract?

It seems that money, as much or more then anything is the motivation to do a lot of these moves. The Braves want pitching and controllable years. They have a questionable offense as it is constructed now and a thin minor league pipeline coming up. This is evident with the move that sent 2nd baseman Tommy La Stella to the Cubs for Arodys Vizcaino and $830K in international free agent money. 

Until the next shoe drops it will be hard to judge what the Heyward deal means and also what the Braves plans are for next season and what the look of the team will be heading into Spring Training.

BUSY OFFSEASON FOR THE BRAVES FRONT OFFICE.

Big Decisions to be made in Atlanta this offseason, and it begins at the top.

The Atlanta Braves are heading into some unprecedented territory this off-season. After the recent termination of GM Frank Wren and the appointment of Interim General Manager John Hart it will be very interesting to see what direction he and the team have in mind.

It is believed that the fate of manager Freddi Gonzalez will be determined by whomever eventually gets the job but likely he will get at least 1 more shot next season, albeit with likely a much different looking regular lineup.

What will prove to be most interesting is what deals will be done under the supervision of John Hart and what will be “saved” for the incoming GM as it relates to player movement.

The Braves endured a season where they managed to finish near the bottom of most offensive categories and managed to be near the top of the team strike out list. For a team that relied on the home run to score, when the power goes out and the runs dry out, then combine that issue with no run production via the long ball no amount of pitching will be able to bail you out.  

So, where do the Braves look to select only their 3^rd GM since 1990? Do they go internal an promote assistant GM John Coppolella, 35? Perhaps use past relationships to lure KC GM Dayton Moore back to the ATL. Also, Former Houston GM Gerry Hunsicker’s name has been mentioned as a possible candidate.

John Hart himself has been known to be the architect of some pretty potent offences in his times as a GM but has not always had pitching staffs to complement it. The Braves seemingly are at least ok by the looks of things on the mound (although the common sentiment is if you have 5 good starters you need 4 more). Will the Braves have to move a younger arm with some bad salaries to make some off-season moves?

It would be nice to either get some cash relief by moving a BJ Upton or Chris Johnson, which would also immediately cut down on the amount of strikeouts the team managed to have. If one or both could be moved, some other teams bad salary would likely have to come Atlanta’s way and possibly a young prospects may have to be included to sweeten the deal. There are probably few untouchables on the roster and whoever takes over as GM could really put their stamp on the team if they decided to get creative and make ‘The Big Deal’. Both Jason Heyward and Justin Upton are free agents after 2015, decisions will have to be made on their long term future as well, could they be dangled to bring back a decent return. What will happen with Evan Gattis is also a question mark. If the team thinks they can get service and production from a Christian Bethencout/Gerald Laird combo maybe Gattis’ power could backbone a trade to fill another void.

We will hopefully soon see who is calling the shots. It is likely they would like things in place soon after the World Series concludes and the GM Meetings in early November.  

Atlanta Braves: Locking Up The Core

In a few short years the Atlanta Braves will be leaving their home lovingly known as 'The Ted' aka Turner Field. Turner Field and was built for the 1996 Atlanta Summer Games, it was then transformed into the new home for the Braves the move there from Atlanta Fulton County Stadium aka 'the launching pad'.  Turner Field, named after former owner and a media mogul Ted Turner is owned by the city of Atlanta and is now starting to show its age. By the time the braves moved to their new location it will be roughly 20 years old. Not that old by building standards but the fact that it is not owned by the ball club limits and what they can do in terms of upgrades and what revenue they can generate for themselves. For instance parking and concessions.

It is widely regarded that teams than build their own stadiums will receive and immediate bumping in revenue streams, that higher ticket sales and more people to the park. It stands to reason that if you're making more money you have more money available that can be put toward payroll. With the Braves owning the building in being the primary tenant has seemingly allowed the Braves to open up their wallets this off-season. GM Frank Wren has been given the authority and financial flexibility to identify the young core of the Braves moving forward.  Not only is moving into a new stadium helping their financial commitments, national television money as well as regional TV rights are allowing the braves to up their payroll. It has been a few years, probably not since Ted Turner sold the team to AOL Time Warner that the Braves have been in a position to spend a little more money.

GM Frank Wren and upper management have clearly made in a mandate to lock up their young core of players and haven't already begun that process this off-season. The Braves had three major young arbitration eligible players that they needed to take care of this off-season. In the beginning it and looked like they were going to be a file and a trial team. This basically means the player gave them a number they thought they deserved and the team did the same. A hearing would be held to decide which dumber would be used for the upcoming season. It appear the braves were going to take their chances on one ever the ruling was in each case for a one year deal.

It was then that the report came in that first baseman Freddie Freeman had signed an 8yr $135M contract. Freeman was in the running for NL MVP this past season and is currently only 24 and has now received the richest contract in teams history.  Right now it looks like he used to be tented as the new face of the franchise, ironically enough, taking that title from his good buddy Chipper Jones. After that deal was made and probably realizing that the free agent crop this year was not that deep the Braves came to terms on another in young potential star Jason Heyward on a 2 yr $13M deal.  Heyward is coming off a tough injury plagued season where he was sidelined after an emergency appendectomy for a few weeks, than came back and was inserted at the top the lineup where he and the team thrived during a double digit winning streak. Then an untimely (not that there is ever a good time) pitch to the face that fractured his orbital bone sent him to the DL again.  Because of all the missed time it was hard for the two sides to come up with a good mutual number on a long-term deal. If Heyward is able to stay healthy and produce to the level in which he and the team expects then they can begin to look at a multi-year extension.

At this point the braves surprised many people by turning their focus to one of their young key starters. Braves announced they had signed Julio Teheran to a six-year $32.4 million extension that includes an option for the 2020 season. If the option is exercised, the 23-year-old pitcher will earn $44.4 million over the next seven seasons.  Given the price of any of the top free agent pitchers each year, locking up Teheran now and buying out his arbitration years could potentially be a team friendly contract.  Even though he is young there's still a risk that the team is taking.  One can never predict injuries or drop off in skill when it comes to pitchers.  They're the biggest gamble of all.  Pick correctly and you set yourself up to be a contender for years to come, pick wrong and you have a very expensive player pitching at your AAA affiliate....  Blue Jays and Ricky Romero I am looking in your direction.

It looked like at that point the Braves would be done and have a whole off-season biz is taking care of, except of course the arbitration hearing for young closer Craig Kimbrel. It was thought that Kimbrel would go through the process get a one year deal and then the braves would have to decide how much they were willing to invest in a player who will only pitches one the inning, the ninth.  Sure it is a very important inning, when teams have to decide how important and how much money to allocate to that position.  It is a risky proposition to sign a closer to a big money multi-year deal.  The Braves have decided to take that risk and sign Kimbrel to a four year $42M deal.  Kimbrel has only been in the league for three seasons but has already proven himself to be one of the premier closer's in baseball and has had his name mentioned the last couple of years in both the CY Young and MVP categories.  The Braves are clearly taking your risk on him be able to sustain the level he is currently at.  If he is able to do so he will almost definitely and live up to his once on a  generation player type contract that he signed.  Hopefully for the Braves sake he can do that and not end up like a guy and within an anchor contract that has been given in the past to closer's like Randy Myers, Jonathan Paplebon and perhaps worst of all BJ Ryan.

I like with the Braves have done and have identified their core group and lock them up for the foreseeable future.  Sure they have are taking a risk but based on the age of the productivity and grooves that the players have shown thus far in their development, hopefully the moves will pay off in the long run and keep these guys together as perennial contenders.

To help the Braves keep the same winning message, they have just extended 2 more pieces of their core...on the management side. GM Frank Wren and manager Fredi Gonzalez have both come to terms with the team. This is a good sign, stability in a good franchise with a winning culture is key. Confidence breeds confidence and winning breeds winning.

Just as I was about to post this blog word came down that the The Braves have just signed Andrelton Simmons to a 7 yr 58M contract extension. Simmons now joins fellow teammates Freeman, Kimbrel, Teheran being locked up in the Atlanta system and putting them in a position to be in the organization when they make the move to their new stadium in 2017. Simmons is widely regarded as one of the best defensive shortstops in the Majors. He also has showed that he has the  ability to impact games with his bat as well. He has very good offensive numbers and can  provide a little bit of pop as well. If he continues to improve as he gains more time this could be a great set up for the Braves over the next 5 years. It is an interesting plan that the Braves have to ensure that this group of guys will get to play and grow together.

The Braves have always been a consistent team but seemingly have constant turn over. With the
majority of their core being so young gives them the unique chance to set their line up as well as give the franchise a good idea of what there payroll will be and what they are able to do with other home grown talent as well as what they can and can not due in terms of  free agency. Sometimes making a big splash with a free agent signing is not nearly as important as the deals you can get done with guys you have drafted and/or developed.

It is interesting to note that former Cleveland Indians executive John Hart, who is now in the front office with the braves was one of the first GM's to utilize the strategy of identifying and wrapping up a core of young players.  Back in the early nineties Hart watched the Pirates lose key players like Barry Bonds and Bobby Bonillia because once they reach to free agency they were too expensive for the small market Pirates to afford. Hart rolled the dice by signing Sandy Alomar Jr. and Carlos Baerga to long-term deals before they were eligible for arbitration. This set the stage for long-term deals that likely kept Omar Vizquel, Jim Thome, Albert Belle and Manny Ramirez in Cleveland longer than if all of these players had been allowed to go through the arbitration process.

The Braves hitter knee identified this strategy as one that they would attempt to do even before hart joined the club but his knowledge and insight clearly help get all parties on the same page.

It will be interesting to see how these players perform going forward but if these players pan out and can form the core that the Braves hope they can they should be able to be in a position to contend each year for a division title and it hopefully also a playoff spot.
Welcome to Braves Country!

Baseball Awards 2012

Here is something that I still don't understand about baseball and the way that they reward their regular season awards. You would think that they would have some sort of showcase or at least a small tv or online special that they could champion the faces of baseball and also grab a little coverage for the sport during the off season  At the very least it would or could add some decent publicity and programming time to the MLB Network or one of the many other sports specific networks. NBC sports has a new channel, CBS Sports has a new channel, obviously there is Fox Sports and the mothership ESPN.

Another point that shows that they are throwing away an opportunity to help promote the game of baseball and keep the sport in the front of mind when they are in the off season  I understand that holding off announcing the winners 2 weeks after the end of the World Series helps do that but announcing 1 a day for 3 or 4 days does a disservice, plus it is annoying and more likely to be lost on the casual fan. These are major awards for your sport why would you not want to celebrate the best of the best in your game? You play 162 regular season games and these guys are the faces of your sport, promote them, promote the game.

The Gold Glove awards were announced yesterday and there were a few interesting choices and also a few of what you will expect.There were 9 first time award winners. It is nice to see that the voters seemed to make an effort to get a correct list and not just give it to the same guys every year just to be lazy. It was also  good to see Braves right fielder Jason Heyward grab a Gold Glove. For a full list click HERE

                                           

One interesting point that I noticed was the fact that the Orioles managed to have 3 players get the nod. A good achievement for sure in sheer volume but what sticks out isn't even the players that won but the positions that they played. The Orioles were a surprise team this year in the AL East and qualified for the Wild Card Play-In Game and it is clear that defense played a role in them getting there. People always say that pitching and defense win championships, those same people also say that you want to be a team that is strong up the middle. If that is true then the Baltimore team followed that blueprint. The 3 Gold Glove winners were Catcher Matt Wieters, Shortstop J.J. Hardy, and Center Fielder Adam 'Don't call me Pac-Man' Jones. That is solid D in all field general positions and probably why they were as good as the team as they were. It was a bit surprising that Mike Trout did not get the nod as he is one of the games most exciting defenders and it is not easy to stand out as a defender. That could be the first of a couple of snubs to Trout. He will be assured the rookie of the year but may fall short on the MVP front. Miguel Cabrera's Triple Crown season may have slipped past Trout's achievements. 

It would be interesting to see what the results would be had MVP voting came after the post season. I am sure some votes would be changed. Poor batting in the World Series in combination with his less then warm demeanor may have changed the vote by some of the writers. I think the feel good rookie story would have been rewarded more for that reason, plus, Trout seems to be a more approachable guy. Popularity always plays a part whenever anyone is in a position to vote for anything.

Opening Day - PLAY BALL!!

After last nights comeback win by the Boston Red Sox over the Evil Empire aka The New York Yankees in the Play-in game they have now a stranglehold of the American League East. All the other teams are in the rear view mirror. All the other teams in the league are all on even footing, at least in terms of their record. Projections and reality might differ but this is the time of the season that just about all is square and everyone still has a shot...yes even the Pirates and Jays.

After another Spring Training has come and gone and another off season of free agents and trades have been completed. It is time to see what all teams have done to make themselves better and be contenders come September and October. It is always fun at this time to see who comes out hot, who is the sleeper guy nobody thought would be as good as he is and what new rookie or prospect is going to break through and become the next big one. (As a Braves fan I hope Jason Heyward is that guy).

With last nights first pitch and today’s matinee games we can now officially consider it to be spring and sunny summer days at the ballpark are only a few months away!