The 'Arms' Race Continues in Atlanta

Well if there was any doubt on the direction that the Atlanta Braves were headed in 2016 the answer became very clear last night. Andrelton Simmons, the best overall defensive player in baseball, was dealt from Atlanta to the Los Angeles Angles. That is likely the last big piece that the Braves had to get a hefty and/or impactful return. Coming from Los Angeles is veteran SS Erick Aybar who is essentially a placeholder for now and will be a free agent at the end of 2016. He is a player that will either be flipped in another deal or play SS and possibly be moved at next years trade deadline. He may be the veteran but not the key piece to the trade. The Braves also picked up 2 pitching prospects that were the real centerpieces for the Braves. As was the case in most of the other big deals that were made during lat years off-season the Braves have shipped out top end major league talent for top end pitching prospects. The first is Chris Ellis, a right handed mid rotation type prospect that helps deepen an already pitching rich farm system. He is not deemed to be an ace but a solid 3-4 type guy should he continue to progress. The main piece is Sean Newcombe, a big left handed power arm with 2 above average breaking balls. He looks like he could be a young Jon Lester type that can throw in the mid 90’s and top out at 96-97mph. If he continues on his current arc he cold become the teams #1 in the next few years. Projecting pitching is not an easy thing to do but the Braves are hoping that with the depth they are accumulating hope that 2 or 3 will reach their potential.

It is more then likely that some of these young arms are going to be used as currency in other moves to boost the extremely weak lineup that they are currently going to have to trot out onto the fields next season.

Braves fans are going to hope that a couple of these guys pan out because if they plan on winning any games they may need to do so 1-0 or 2-1.

Now it looks like the focus is going to have to be how best to thin out the logjam in the outfield. There are a lot of bodies and a lot of money tied up in the outfield. Any trades are not going to garner much of a return but right now it is probably more important to clear some money and create some roster spots for other younger players. There are 3 outfielders that the Braves would like to move out of town, Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher and Cameron Maybin. Those 3 guys are due in the neighborhood of $37M and only Maybin may be a player that may be ok to roam Center field, at least until the trade deadline. Regardless of the return it would be a prime example of addition by subtraction.

That is where we stand right now, but we must take note that it is sill just mid November and we haven’t hit the Winter Meetings where it is more likely that there will be more moves that will be made, either by trade or free agency.

Let the funny season continue, should be interesting.

Trade Deadline Is Near - Braves looking to make moves

What is the right fit? What do the Braves have that teams want and do those teams have the depth to make it happen?

The Braves have some nice chips that they could move if an interested party were to offer up a package that fits what the Braves are trying to do. Based on being 7 games out at the break, one would think that John Hart and Co. would continue to look to the ultimate end game of being good in 2017 when they move into SunTrust Park. All the moves thus far have had an eye on that being the end game. Even more recent moves involving older players are now solid trade chips to bolster the farm, create a pipeline of talent and create depth so future trades for proven players is available when the time is appropriate. All the arms they are gathering is great but as we saw with the big 3 throughout the 90's and early 2000s great pitching can cover up a lot of offensive warts but at some point you need to have a consistent offense and an increase of power, one capable of putting up some runs to aid these good young arms and lessen the amount of stressful innings they have from night to night. It is hard for young arms to pitch in 2-1 games all the time. Being last in baseball with under 60 Home Runs this season thus far needs to be addressed. It would be nice if Hart can be creative enough to get some young power in the ATL.

When the season began there were a lot of “experts” that had written off the Braves this season and gave them no chance of finishing higher then last place in the East. Thankfully the Phillies look to be tough to wrestle that position away from. Going into the All Star Break the Braves are 7 games behind Washington for the East lead. Sure it is well within reach but fans should not be fooled. The team is not in a position to contend this year. They are a competitive team but not ready to be a playoff team yet.

After an off season that saw guys like Jason Heyward Justin and Melvin Upton Jr. Evan Gatis, and Craig Kimbrel shipped out for prospects and more controllable contracted players. The Braves were not expected to field anything near a competitive team. Thankfully for the players that were left and the fans that still wanted to see some decent baseball the Braves have played just under .500 ball.

Last year the team was an all or nothing squad. It was, for the most part and Home Run or bust team that were victims of the strike out more often then not. This year most of those guys are gone and replaced with contact hitters and play a more traditional National League style of ball. Contact and speed seem to be more the focus. This “small ball” mentality makes for much more enjoyable to watch. Sure it is nice to see the Home Runs hit, but when the power dries up it is a very painful game to watch. It is hard to watch the starters trow a good game and not get any support. As stated before. it difficult on pitchers both mentally and physically. Those bright young arms can throw much more freely when they get some help and take some of the pressure off.To continue on with the plan the Braves need to look to move some guys that are not going to fit into the long term plan and are nice trade chips should the Braves manage to find a suitable dance partner with the right combination of players or prospects. Guys like Cameron Maybin, Juan Uribe and Jim Johnson and maybe Chris Johnson's contract. If the Braves can use these guys to further increase the depth at the minor league level or pick up a young controllable bat that could be very beneficial to the club going forward. What is also nice is a extra bit of money that will be freed up when the cash owed to Dan Uggla is off the books. Money+ Prospects = Flexability

John Hart has shown he is not afraid to deal and if he can take these players and sell high he needs to do so. Even by moving some or all of these players they are still going to be able to field a competitive team. If you can still supply watchable baseball and strengthen your organization at the same time, it is a no brainer.

Is Kimbrel A Luxury Asset?

What is his value to a revamped Braves team and is it greater then what they can get for him now or at the trade deadline?

With all the moves the Atlanta Braves have done this off-season there is still one very important question left to be answered, what should they do with Craig Kimbrel? Do you keep a closer that may not have as many opportunities on a team that you don’t know what they are yet or if they will be able to compete in enough games to make it worth keeping Kimbrel around.

Kimbrel is a fan favorite, is locked up for the next few years and is one of the most dominant relievers in baseball. With that said, does it make a lot of sense to hang onto a closer that may not get the chance to save as many games. Maybe now is not the best time to move him as typically moving a reliever closer to the deadline will garner a more bountiful return. By waiting, you can also see how the team is handling the newly re-vamped roster. Maybe they ride a good starting rotation and are able to manufacture more runs then anticipated and surprise a lot of people. If not then having the unnecessary luxury of a closer does not make as much sense.

The Braves are trying to gear up for their move to SunTrust Park in 2017, and likely by that time Kimbrel’s value would not likely be as high as it would be now. If some of the new arms that were acquired this off season look like they have rebounded from down years then maybe there is a capable guy there that can step into that role in the interim.

A possible return that could be retrieved might just be enough for GM John Hart to part with his golden armed closer and get some more assets in his quest to prepare the Braves for their move to SunTrust.

Recent deals that have included the likes of Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Evan Gattis have brought back many top prospects, most of them young arms. On a team that also has many questions on offence some quality bats could be a nice and welcomed addition.

There is still time before the season for Hart to address that, especially in left field. There are still some free agents still available as well so that could also affect the teams willingness and/or need to move Kimbrel anytime soon. 

Making sure the deal today doesn't bite you tomorrow

The balancing act when trading for now but not getting burned in the future

There is always a risk when making a trade in any sport, especially baseball. It is usually less risky when making a player for player deal as, for the most part, with established players you have a pretty good idea what you are giving and what you are getting. Also there is less of a financial penalty because there is no salary cap. A deal may hurt your budget but not necessarily cripple the team. Of course injuries that may crop up are out of anyone's control. The Ian Kinsler/ Prince Fielder trade between the Texas Ranger and the Detroit Tigers is evidence of that. Tigers look to come out way ahead of that one so far with Fielder possibly out for the season with neck surgery.

 

Where deals are a little more cloudy is when you start throwing prospects into the mix. This happens a lot near the trade deadline for teams that look to get an established arm or bat to help in a push for the post season or for a World Series run. Eliminated teams will often deal top end players that will not help them in the short term and get top end prospects to help them get better in the long term. It is a tough balancing act on how much teams are willing to give up in terms of the future for players that can be dropped into the line-up right away.

Every team has stories about winning and losing deals with this practice. As a Braves fan I know all to well that one can hit a huge home run when the prospect that you trade for becomes a soon to be Hall of Fame member. It started with the Braves trading Duane Ward to Toronto for Doyal Alexander. Then Alexander was traded to the Tigers for Prospect John Smoltz. Not a bad deal, Alexander went 9-0 and helped the Tigers win the AL East, Smoltz went on the be part of one of the best rotations ever assembled in the last 50 years. There is also trades that looking back involving prospects that look less then favorable as a Braves fan. 1 Career year for JD Drew and Eli Mararo to the Braves for competent reliever Ray King, Jason Marquis (who was still decent at the time) and, this is where it hurts - prospect Adam Wainwright (he turned out pretty good). The other prospect trade that looks bad now was the deal that brought Mark Texteria and Ron Mahay to Hot-Lanta for  Beau Jones, Elvis Andrus (Starting SS-close to 30sb per yr), Neftali Feliz (40 saves in 2010), Matt Harrison (won 18 in 2012) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

 

The best trade of late that was not made was the deal that would have sent Randall Delgado to the Cubs in a deadline deal that would have seen Ryan Dempster sent to the Braves. Thankfully Dempster vito'd the trade and the Braves retained the rights to Delgado. Delgado was then used as a key piece that brought Justin Upton to The ATL with 3B Chris Johnson for  Nick Ahmed (minors), Brandon Drury (minors), Randall Delgado, Martin Prado and Zeke Spruill. Had Delgado been traded to the Cubs for 1yr of Dempster the Braves may have had to include Julio Teheran as part of the Upton deal. Not something the Braves I imagine would have either wanted to or would have been willing to do.

Team 4- The Final Installment...ish

Round 4 of selecting a NEW TEAM has landed on the LA Kings. This is a team with some interesting pieces and makes them one of the more attractive teams to choose from.For the last few years they have been a bit of a joke on the ice and there were questionable decisions being made in the front office. On the bright side it was those years that put them in a position to start building their team through the draft. The decision to bring in Marc Crawford probably wasn’t the right choice and by all accounts his endorsement of Dan Cloutier in nets did nothing to further the development of this team.

The change in philosophy on how prospects are evaluated and developed under the guidance of Dean Lombardi and his hockey operations staff is a big reason for optimism. Lombardi did a good job at putting together the San Jose Sharks and looks to be doing that in LA. The Kings have what looks to be one of the deepest roster of quality of prospects in the NHL. They have 3 good looking goaltenders in Jonathan Bernier, Jeff Zatkoff and Jon Quick...all under the age of 23. Quick just came off a very solid rookie year as the starter. His play will allow the team to be patient in bringing along the other 2 and will allow for some competition on the farm team. Another luxury they have is a very deep defence both at the NHL level and in the system. Drew Doughty very easily could have been a contender for rookie of the year and was selected to play for Canada at the World Championships. Jack Johnson is a big body First Round Pick and has that Michigan pedigree. In the minors and in junior may be the best grouping of young defence. Canadian World Junior captain Thomas Hickey was an early pick and looks to be a good 2 way defenceman, smart and savvy Russian Vyacheslav Voynov has some real potential, towering pivot Brian Boyle may play center or defence but is a pig body for sure and then last years 13th pick the rugged Colten Teubert ( I have a softy spot for Teubert as I have met him and gotten his autograph. He seemed really down to earth very chatty and outgoing just a nice guy...also watching him in the World Juniors in person as a first pair shutdown player doesn’t hurt. He looks to possibly be a very solid player).

Where I see the team lacking is up front. After watching a few games and looking into the team they are a little weak up front. Scoring was an issue all season and they will need to do something soon to address this. There have been talk that maybe a Marian Gaborek may come as a free agent and even some talk of Vincent Lecavalier being dealt to LA. If that is the case they do have some pieces that could be moved in a possible deal as Tampa has NO DEFENCE. The Entry Draft this year will be very interesting for them as they do have the 5th pick and are assured of a good player or it could be used to get a top flight forward that can put the puck in the net.

Already on the team or on the verge that look to be making positive strides are Oscar Moller,Wayne Simmonds, Teddy Purcell, and Trevor Lewis. These youngsters along with Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar, Jarret Stoll and Alexander Frolov allow for a decent core to build upon.

So here we are, 4 teams that are in the running to become my favorite Western Conference team. This is where things begging to get difficult and a little murky. I will admit that I did have a bit of a lean when I began thinking about this and LA had the early lead. The only problem was that as time went by and i started doing a little research the balance of power began to shift. As of right now I have widdled the selection down to 2 possible choices....The LA Kings and....The St. Louis Blues. and that I am afraid is where it will need to stay right at this moment. It is just too close to call and I will have to give it some real thought and weigh the pros and cons. At this point it is just too close to call...a photo finish as it were. I hope to have an answer to this burning question very soon, within the next few days but I just don’t know which way to go at this point. Wish me luck, it looks like I will need it.