The Value of a Win

I have had a long, misguided, and over-appreciated view of what a win really means in baseball. At least in terms of what a win is as it relates to a pitcher.

There was a time when I thought you could look at a pitchers record and ell if he was having a good season or not. Was this pitcher worthy of winning a Cy Young or even be considered an ace without 18+ wins? At one time I probably would have said no. I felt like consistency and good pitching go hand in hand and the results would usually, over the course of a 182 game season work itself out. I no longer believe this.

Even bad teams will win a lot of games, so one could conclude that even a good pitcher on a bad team is going to get positive results. The failure rate in most categories in baseball is so great that one would figure that even the bad will beat a good on any given night.

What I am learning about good pitching and good numbers are that strictly looking at win totals does no good at all. Sure, I will submit that there is something to be said for some guys that just manage to 'get it done', 'rise to the occasion', or simply 'just win, baby'. But in the big picture you can't just look at that.

After watching the Braves this season seemingly give up at least the first run on just about every night, but it seems like it is multiple runs early in the game. it makes it a lot more difficult to play from behind all the time and  not getting early runs is not helping anyone. When the Braves do score it seems like it is just one or 2 runs and then the bats go quiet again. This is leaving the Braves pitchers out on an island to fend for themselves. Sure there have been some stinkers thrown by the rotation, but on the whole, as a complete rotation they have been sensational. Considering at the beginning of the season it looked like the 5 man group had be decimated and that that was going to be the Braves downfall right from the get go.

On a season that looked so promising with a rotation that look like it could be Julio Tehran, Kris Medlan, Brandon Beachy, Gavin Floyd, and Mike Minor and or the possibility of Freddy Garcia, There was talk that maybe a 6 man rotation would be the way to go for the first month and see how that went. The team looked deep in that position, looked like a solid playoff calibre team that was ready to play any National League team.

That nice depth of quality arms looked to put the Braves in a position of strength and offered high optimism heading into April. Then the wheels went off the track and things began to go sideways. Medlan - Tommy John (again), Beachy Tommy John (again), Gavin Floyd looked good on his rehab then boom - Tommy John (again). Suddenly things down in Peachtree nation wasn't looking quite so peachy.

It was easy to be greatly concerned that this was going to devastate the team and just crush the team coming out of the gates a bury them early. Freddy Garcia was let go in what at the time seemed a strange decision and Aaron Harang was brought in off the scrap heap from Cleveland. Ervin Santana was swept away from at least 1 other team, at least one AL East team with a 14.1M 1 year contract. It looked like the season was going to be cut down at the knees because of the pitching. That was far from true. They were almost all the shining stars on a team that was just not able to sustain a consistent offence that, by the end of the season, was all but dried up. This is why the win for pitchers mean so little. You can pitch your ass off and get rewarded with either no support, blown leads from the bullpen or no help until it is too late. Even as a Braves fan I feel for Cole Hammels a bit as he seems to get the same amount of support that the entire Braves staff was given the majority of the season.

How Craig Kimbrell managed to rack up 46 saves is almost mind blowing. I guess with that said the Braves could not or would not score much of any runs until the 7-8 or 9th innings. The way a game is played out is directly influenced but the team that can jump out and score even a few early runs...it just takes the pressure off that you just can't plate guys.

With all the teams in the NL East poised to be better next season through nothing more than just getting healthy the Braves need to bolster a roster/lineup that can manufacture some runs. If they could not do it this year with the diminished staffs from other NL East teams then they are going to need some much different faces and approaches next year and maybe then some of these well tossed games and efforts by the pitching staff will not go to waste as often.

Six Flags Over Atlanta

It has been a Roller Coaster week at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in the middle of Walt Disney World® Resort.

It all started when #1 starter Kris Medlan hopped off the mound, holding and flexing his elbow and forearm. This was a sight that has been seen before and that resulted in him taking an unwanted trip to Alabama. Lets make this clear, not good happens on trips to Alabama unless you are a QB, WR, RB or a 300lbs Lineman. This trip was to the clinic of the number one, but most hated name by fans in all sports, Dr. James Andrews. Dr. Andrews is the foremost authority and surgeon for Tommy John reconstructive surgery.

For the second time Medlan left a game and it is not only feared but is generally believed that  he will have to undergo a second Tommy John procedure and will likely miss the entire season and probably the first bit of the beginning of next season. A lot of people are not aware of Medlan as he is not as well known and is regarded as one of the most under appreciated and under the radar pitcher in all of baseball. Since his return he is second to only Clayton Kershaw in ERA (2.47). Needless to say a big loss the the Braves rotation and team.

Just when you think things are starting to look bleak in terms of the rotation, the next man up, another Tommy John client took the mound in a Spring outing. Brandon Beachy still working his way back after being shut down last season after his return from the procedure. Since then he has had another smaller procedure to clean things up. Beachy started the game and was pitching well but then he too had to shut it down early mid game. In terms of Beachy, at least it seems like he just needs of rest and strengthen his arm but in any event he will not be ready to start the season when the teams breaks camp.

A once relatively deep and good looking young staff has been decimated in a very short period of time. The Braves wasted little time in addressing this gaping hole in their team that has been built to try to win now. 2-9 in the lineup are a pretty solid team on paper. If BJ Upton and Dan Uggla can bounce back and be just average the lineup has the potential to be a strong one. After brutal seasons by both those guys anything above average should bolster an already solid offensive line up.

Then right out of the blue Braves GM Frank Wren jump at the lone big name free agent out there Ervin Santana.  Santana is liked by many and questioned by maybe more. Wherever you sit on this guy it was a gutsy move that had to be done. Was it the right move?  Maybe, maybe not, but it was a gamble that had to be made. The Braves had to show their fans that they are willing to spend to make the team better and more importantly show the team that management is backing you and believe they are a good club and are expecting to win.

The deal is for 1 year for $14.1M. Like they say there is no bad one year deal. The one knock is that they had to give up the ever valuable 1st rd pick to the Royals who qualified Santana. That is the bad news. Here is the good news.The Braves have stated they are here to win not rebuild so losing the pick is the cost of doing business. Santana's $14 million salary wasn't in the budget, and the Braves do stick to budgets. Teams that do that have to be prepared to make difficult decisions. If that means walking away from a player they love -- Tim Hudson, for instance -- they do it. You have to give to get.

The Braves do have a silver lining for this too that help take the sting out of losing that pick. They are getting one from the Yankees for the Brian McCann signing and also they may be able to recoup that pick next year if they qualify Santana and he declines and tries his luck again in free agency for a long term deal.

Santana is coming to the National League for the first time. It is known as more pitcher friendly league and the stadiums lend themselves to being a little more forgiving as well. An added benefit for Santana to boost his stock this year is that the Braves on paper are a decent team but also have one of the best defenses in the NL. The outfield has speed and good gloves, the infield has the best defensive SS in all of baseball in Andralton Simmons and Freddie Freeman can pick it as well as any first baseman in the game. I know it sounds weird that a guy that sports a sideways straight brimmed hat can create this buzz but it is true. here is a quote from Richard Justice’s piece on the issue ”...Santana has pitched 200-plus innings in three of the past four seasons, and only James Shields, Max Scherzer and C.J. Wilson had more quality starts among American League pitchers in 2013. Santana is a low-key, professional guy who will fit well in the Atlanta culture.”

Hopefully the team can break from spring training without any more injuries and get off to a decent start. It looks like it will start with Julio Tehran, Alex Wood, Freddy Garcia and David Hale.

Hopefully they can then get some help with Minor, Beachy and Santana coming back hopefully in the first month and then Gavin Floyd sometime in mid May.

It will be an interesting beginning to the season and if they can stay afloat until they get some reinforcements back they should be in a good position to keep up with or close to the Washington Nationals.

Playoff Ticket Punched!

In The Immortal Words of Billy Zane: 

It's a walk-off! 

Chipper Jones gets to finish his career the way he and his teams was used to doing-
Going to the playoffs!

One year after a gut wrenching September collapse, that only a Red Sox collapse was able to cover up for the most part the Braves clinched a spot in this year's post season and can at least get the team ready for the one game playoff that comes with the wild card spot and/or make a run to try and catch the Nationals for tops in the NL East, but that is very unlikely. Freddie Freeman's two-run walk-off home run allowed the Braves to win yet another Kris Medlen start while punching their playoff ticket with a 4-3 win over the Marlins at Turner Field on Tuesday night. With Chipper Jones on 3rd Freeeman crushed the Mike Dunn pitch right back dead center right over the 400ft marker in center field.

With the comeback, the Braves won the 22nd consecutive game started by Medlen. As I recently posted the run that the Braves are on when Medlen takes the ball to start a game is just amazing and just goes to show that you need solid combination of luck and skill. Who knows how long the run will last but for now it is pretty amazing.

Braves Not 'Medlen' Around

The Atlanta Braves have been known as the team with the best pitching staff over the 1990's and into the 2000's. When you can throw out 3 near lock first ballot Hall of Fame inductees like Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz and then mix in other ace potential starters like: Denny Neagle, Kevin Millwood, Steve Avery, Charlie Leibrandt, Pete Smith,  Jason Marquis and Jason Schmidt, you quickly see that the Braves have a history of building a championship caliber team from the mound out.  It was a great time to be a Braves fan. 14 straight division titles will do that for you. When you looked on the bench you would see Bobby Cox getting ready to get thrown out of a game and pitching coach Leo Mazzone rocking back and forth watching his pitchers.

Now the Braves are looking at going back to the playoffs, this time likely as the Wild Card team. This is for 2 reasons 1) The Washington Nationals have over achieved and have the best record in baseball and 2) The Braves have been hit with big injuries to key pitchers and yet have managed to secure a spot in the post season.

The Braves have managed to do what the Nationals have botched up from the beginning and that is to have a young stud pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery and managing his arm correctly and not harming their team in the process. Washington has the well known big gun Stephen Strasburg, the Braves have much less known Kris Medlen. The Nats made Strasburg the opening day starter and rode him as the ace until late August when they realized that he was getting close to the max innings they were prepared for him to work so as to not harm him long team. A fine Idea if you are the Houston Astros and have no hope of making the playoffs and shutting him down has no baring on anything, but the Nats were supposed to be good and should have know that using Stephen Strasburg as much as they did they would have to shut him down early or risk breaking there plan and putting the golden arm in a potentially dangerous position. The Braves seemed to take the opposite approach with Kris Medlen. The started him out in the bullpen, managed his outings, pitch counts and innings. In mid season they called on him to join the rotation as the rotation had been pounded with injuries and inconsistent starts.

Since then Medlen has been nothing short of spectacular. Currently (9-1) lost the first two starts of his career in 2009. He hasn't taken a loss in any of his 26 starts since, with the Braves prevailing in the last 21 of those...almost unheard of (The Yankees won 22 consecutive times when Whitey Ford started games from 1950 through 1953). Mitch "Wild Thing" Williams said recently on the Dan Patrick Show that he was the best pitcher in baseball right now. Not bad for a guy who started the year as a reliever.

Had Medlen been in the rotation he would likely be in the running for the Cy Young in the NL but then he also would be over his innings limit like Strasberg the Braves still have Medlen's services.  After losing Brandon Beachy's services after he went under the knife with Tommy John Surgery the braves were in need of a new ace. Ben Sheets went on the DL, Tim Hudson was on and off injured, Tommy Hanson had his struggles and Jair Jurrjens was inconsistent and then on the DL.  The braves managed to work through these injuries and still be in a position for the wild card.  No small feat for sure. Going forward they also have 2 guys to help fill out the depth of the rotation in respect to high end prospects; Randall Delgado and Julio Teheran. Both have a high upside and can hopefully come in and compete for a spot, work out of the pen as they mature or be used to help fill out the roster with the holes via trade that will open up this off season.

Just where would the Braves be have they have a full staff.  If Medlen and Beachy were healthy at the same time and Mike minor continued to pitch the way he has been and mix in Ben Sheets and Tommy Hanson WOW, that is one awesome staff and likely top team in the east.  Unfortunately injuries and baseball are and inevitability and that is why pitching depth is so  key.  Braves fans can only hope this is the second coming of a dominant pitching staff like they have in the mid 1990s.  It is too early to put these guys in the same class as future Hall of Famer's but the potential is there.

Hopefully the one game playoff between the two wild card teams does not come back to bite the Braves.  It can be interesting to see what this group can do. A strong playoff runin Chipper Jones last season would be a fitting end to a magnificent career.